Handicapping the NBA Playoffs

By: John M. Crist

The NBA regular season came to a close on Wednesday night, and some of the biggest names in the game will be staying home this year. Let’s review. Everyone who feels the Lakers got the better end of the deal by shipping Shaquille O’Neal to South Beach, raise your hand. Put your hand down, Mitch Kupchak. You too, Kobe Bryant.

LeBron James did everything he could possibly do in his sophomore campaign, including an incredible 27-point, 14-rebound, 14-assist triple-double in the finale against the Raptors, but his Cavaliers crumbled down the stretch after winning 30 of their first 50 games. Kevin Garnett was the MVP of the league last year and took his Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals, but his team got old in a hurry, specifically Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell, and came up one game short. Bryant wanted to run the show in Hollywood, but he ran the Lakers into the ground with a horrendous 34-48 record and finished the season losing 17 of 19.

I half-expected Commissioner David Stern to announce this week that he expanded the playoff field to 24 teams in order for the Lakers and Knicks to qualify since they still generate ratings and revenue. Let’s face it, he lengthened the first round from best-of-five to best-of-seven midway through the ‘03 season solely to give the Lakers a better chance of advancing, and he rigged the ‘85 NBA Draft so the Knicks could land Patrick Ewing with the #1 overall pick. Some insiders have suggested that Stern’s real last name is Corleone.

Nevertheless, there are some great first round matchups, and the list of teams with a genuine shot at winning the championship is a little longer than it has been the last few years. The West is wide open for the first time in half a decade with the Lakers on the sideline and Tim Duncan missing a lot of time with a bum ankle, and Shaq manning the middle for the Heat has single-handedly changed the face of the East. Yes, I know Danielle Steele wrote more NBA columns this year than I did, but here’s what we can expect to see in Round 1:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Heat vs. (8) Nets

The most lethal inside-outside threat in the NBA this year is O’Neal and Dwyane Wade of the Heat, and both will get their fair share of league MVP votes. The Nets finished the regular season on a tear after trading for a rejuvenated Vince Carter, who has paired with Jason Kidd to be the most electrifying fast-break combo in the game. Richard Jefferson has been cleared to practice and could see action for New Jersey, but they have no answer for O’Neal, who has paced himself the last month and should be plenty fresh. Heat in five.

(2) Pistons vs. (7) 76ers

Not only is Detroit the defending NBA champion, but they are playing their best basketball right now, having won 11 in a row before dropping their meaningless last game to Charlotte. Philly scratched and clawed its way into the playoffs by winning eight of their final 10, and despite little help from the newly-acquired Chris Webber, Allen Iverson is having the best season of his stellar career. The Wallace boys, Ben and Rasheed, should run rampant down low in this series, and Iverson simply can’t do it by himself much longer. Pistons in five.

(3) Celtics vs. (6) Pacers

Boston looked invigorated after bringing back Antoine Walker from basketball oblivion (read: playing for the dreadful Atlanta Hawks), but they struggled to close out the season and essentially won the Atlantic Division by default. Rick Carlisle has done an amazing job keeping the Pacers together after that royal rumble with the Pistons at The Palace of Auburn Hills, and the retiring Reggie Miller has been nothing short of heroic, solidifying his legacy as one of the best clutch performers in NBA history. Carlisle is a much better coach than Doc Rivers at this point, and Indiana is playing with purpose right now. Pacers in seven.

(4) Bulls vs. (5) Wizards

The Baby Bulls will be without two major cogs in the wheel, leading-scorer Eddy Curry to an irregular heartbeat and prized rookie Luol Deng to a wrist injury, but Chicago is very deep and one of the better defensive teams in the league. The Wizards are all about their big three with Gilbert Arenas, Larry Hughes, and Antawn Jamison each averaging in the vicinity of 20 points a game. Chicago can spread the scoring as well as any team in the playoffs, and first-year star Ben Gordon is positively fearless in the fourth quarter and capable of stealing a game by himself. Bulls in six.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Suns vs. (8) Grizzlies

Phoenix blistered the hardwood all season long en route to a league-leading 62 victories, and bringing in Steve Nash to conduct their up-tempo attack was a stroke of brilliance. The Grizz have eight players averaging at least nine points per game, and head coach Mike Fratello has done an admirable job divvying up the minutes on a pretty talented roster. With Amare Stoudamire rocking the rim inside and Quentin Richardson draining threes outside, the Suns simply have too many weapons not to advance. Suns in five.

(2) Spurs vs. (7) Nuggets

San Antonio’s Tim Duncan has the most talked-about ankle in sports since Curt Schilling bloodied his sock in last year American League Championship Series, and even with Tony Parker and Many Ginobili, the Spurs need Duncan at 100%. Denver has been scorching hot since George Karl took over as coach mid-season, and the frontline of Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, and Marcus Camby may be the most athletic in the league. Again, it all comes down to Duncan’s ankle because he’s still the best player in the NBA, especially in the postseason. Spurs in six.

(3) Sonics vs. (6) Kings

Few prognosticators had the Sonics as a playoff team before the start of the season, and although they slowed down considerably after the All-Star break, the one-two punch of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis can explode for 60 points on any given night. Sacramento has been playing very well of late, and the return of their most valuable bench player, Bobby Jackson, should be a huge shot in the arm for this team. This is a bad matchup for Seattle, and Kings point guard Mike Bibby always seems to step it up a notch come playoff time. Kings in six.

(4) Mavericks vs. (5) Rockets

This may be the most intriguing series in the first round because both teams finished the regular season on a tear, and both teams have a bona fide scoring machine with something to prove. Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs showed a level of defensive toughness this year that they obviously lacked in the past, and after some early struggles, Houston’s Tracy McGrady learned to mesh with big man Yao Ming in the middle. Dallas has a much deeper team, and Houston has absolutely nobody who can guard Nowitzki. Mavericks in five.

John Crist is a longtime contributor to the CSR, and the Editor-in-Chief of Bear Report Magazine. Check it out and become a Bears Insider. You can contact him at johncrist@yahoo.com.

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