What We Learned From Week 1 in the NFL

By: John M. Crist

There are few things more meaningless than preseason games in the National Football League, aside from Kanye West’s political beliefs and Richard Hatch’s tax return. The results actually count in the standings after Week 1, so this is the first true test to see which coaches have made the right adjustments, which free agent signings will pay off, and which teams could very well be on their way to Super Bowl XL in Detroit.

Kansas City’s defense isn’t really that good, Green Bay’s offense isn’t really that bad, and San Francisco isn’t quite ready for a return to the glory days. But if you really think so, then you probably believe that Willie Parker will lead the league in rushing, Frisman Jackson will set a new league record for receiving yards, and Chris Baker will supplant Tony Gonzalez as the best tight end in football.

One game does not a season make, as Shakespeare might say, but images in the pigskin crystal ball have already started to become a little clearer. Here are 10 things I witnessed this past weekend and feel pretty confident about the rest of the way:

1. New England is still the team to beat

The Patriots have won three of the last four Super Bowls, and although they have huge holes to fill at linebacker and looked vulnerable in the running game against the Raiders on opening night, this team knows what it has to do to get the job done. They are far from flashy, just like head coach Bill Belichick’s sideline wardrobe, but Tom Brady and Company prove that the final tally on the scoreboard is the only statistic that matters. Corey Dillon is still a battering ram in the backfield, Deion Branch is on his way to becoming an elite receiver, and the scheme is still in place despite the defections of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis and defensive guru Romeo Crennel.

2. Jacksonville has the look of a team on the rise

The Jaguars would have made the playoffs last year had they not stunk up Alltel Stadium in an embarrassing 21-0 defeat at the hands of the going-nowhere Texans in Week 16, so now this team appears to be that much more hungry. The defense was one of the best in the business last season, and the addition of sack artist Reggie Hayward should make the push rush and coverage unit better simultaneously. This is a team that must put more points on the scoreboard, and Byron Leftwich looked like he was back at Marshall the way he was throwing the ball all over the field on Sunday.

3. Pittsburgh doesn’t need Duce Staley or Jerome Bettis

Willie Parker was sensational slashing his way to 161 yards and a touchdown in a 34-7 manhandling of the Titans. Staley was terrific to start the `04 season and Bettis was a beast down the stretch, but when you combine a bone-crushing offensive line with Bill Cowher’s blue-collar commitment to the running game, any one of the three is capable of putting up huge numbers. The key to the Steelers is the development of their second-year quarterback Ben Roethlisberger because if he can keep the opposition honest with his arm, the ground game and that suffocating defense will do the rest.

4. Tampa Bay could be a real sleeper in a weak NFC

Rich Gannon was a relatively average quarterback before being transformed into a league MVP in Jon Gruden’s version of the West Coast offense, so Brian Griese could be well on his way to resuscitating his career with the Bucs. Carnell ‘Cadillac’ Williams tallied 148 yards and a game-clinching touchdown in his NFL debut, and the size of Michael Clayton combined with the speed of Joey Galloway makes for a solid pair of receivers. They may have lost the likes of Warren Sapp and John Lynch on the other side of the ball, but Monte Kiffin’s crew still managed to keep Daunte Culpepper’s high-powered Vikings offense out of the end zone all day.

5. Green Bay is in for a long season

The annual Brett Favre retirement ceremony was put on hold once again, but this time, #4 will probably wish he had stayed back in Mississippi and gone hunting all season. The Packers had more holes on defense last season than the plot to “Ishtar”, yet the front office decided to take Aaron Rodgers, Favre’s probable successor at quarterback, in the first round of the draft as opposed to a quality run-stopper. Ahman Green seems a step slower and still fumbles at an alarming rate, deep threat Javon Walker is lost for the year with a torn knee, and the usually reliable offensive line is noticeably weaker after some offseason defections.

6. Indianapolis may finally be able to stop somebody

We all know that Peyton Manning’s aerial assault could have scored 40 points against the `85 Bears last season, so with Edgerrin James fully healthy and a sick receiving corps of Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley, expect more of the same in `05. But considering how well the Colts played defensively against the Ravens on Sunday night, Tony Dungy and his troops will be awfully tough to beat if they can finally get home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I know the Ravens offense won’t make anyone forget about Bill Walsh’s 49ers any time soon, but if Indy can just become a middle-of-the-pack defensive unit, that could be good enough to earn a Vince Lombardi Trophy.

7. Atlanta still has no semblance of a passing game

The running attack of the Falcons is electrifying with Warrick Dunn making defenders miss on the outside, T.J. Duckett getting the tough yards between the tackles, and quarterback Michael Vick essentially giving the team an extra tailback on every play. They are a chic’ pick to overtake the Eagles and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but if there is one thing almost every NFL championship team has in common over the years, it’s offensive balance. Scrambling can sometimes lead to big plays, but scrambling is also the mating call of long sacks, costly fumbles, and foolish interceptions.

8. Kansas City is a dangerous threat in the AFC West

Much like the Colts, the Chiefs just need a slight improvement on defense because they can put points on the board as well as any team in football. The Priest Holmes/Larry Johnson combination in the backfield is a devastating one-two punch, leaving Trent Green and Tony Gonzalez plenty of room to operate with the play-action pass. Cornerback Patrick Surtain paid immediate dividends in Week 1 and only cost the team a second round pick, and linebacker Derrick Johnson has Defensive Rookie of the Year written all over him.

9. St. Louis is not the ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ anymore

Marc Bulger may have completed 34 passes for 362 yards last week, but that didn’t stop the Rams from blowing up a fair share of suicide pools in a stunning loss to the long-since-rebuilding 49ers. Few teams in NFL history were more fun to watch than those St. Louis teams of a few years ago with Marshall Faulk setting a new total yardage record every season and Kurt Warner uplifting the spirits of bag boys everywhere, but those days are long gone. Head coach Mike Martz will continue to play his Arena League style to the delight of fantasy football owners everywhere, but his utter disregard for defense and special teams will cost this team dearly.

10. New Orleans has too many obstacles to overcome

With all they have been through surrounding the devastation of Hurricane Katrina, it’s safe to say that the Saints will have an overwhelming number of sympathetic fans across the country. Their last-second victory in Carolina brought a smile to the faces of many people who have no real reason to be smiling right now, but I just can’t see that good fortune continuing for Jim Haslett’s club the rest of the way. The Superdome is in ruins, their ‘home’ schedule is more convoluted than that of the old Montreal Expos, and the lack of familiar beds to sleep in will undoubtedly catch up with them sooner than later.

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John Crist is a longtime contributor to the CSR, and the Editor-in-Chief of Bear Report Magazine. Check it out and become a Bears Insider. You can contact him at johncrist@yahoo.com.

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