And Down the Stretch They Come

By: John M. Crist

With three-quarters of the 2006 NFL season already in the books, 17 of 32 teams are realistically alive for 12 playoff berths. The division winners are pretty much set in the AFC, yet three of the four divisions are still unsettled over in the NFC. The Colts have clearly established themselves as the team to beat as they march toward 19-0 immortality, but as far as the rest of football goes, it’s a mess out there.

The NFC in particular has never been so wide open.

The Panthers appeared to be the cream of the crop at 7-2 but then got thumped in Soldier Field by the resurgent Monsters of the Midway. The Bears looked a cut above the rest at 9-3 until the Steelers kicked them in the teeth last week. The Seahawks just keep rolling along at 11-2 and have the inside track on home-field advantage, and considering how shaky they have been on the road under Mike Holmgren, Seattle would be wise to stay put in the Pacific Northwest this January. They have already clinched the West, so the Giants, Cowboys, Redskins, Bears, Vikings, Buccaneers, Panthers, and Falcons are all alive for the remaining five spots in the NFC.

Things are a little more settled in the AFC, but it looks like some pretty solid teams will be watching the playoffs from their La-Z-Boys.

The defending-champion Patriots will win the East by default since the rest of the division is weaker than Popeye sans spinach. The Bengals and Broncos have just about wrapped up the North and West, respectively, and the Colts put a ribbon on the South right about the time the schedule was released. This leaves the Steelers, Jaguars, Chargers, and Chiefs to duke it out for just two positions in the AFC.

Let’s break down each of the questionable contenders and assess their chances:

New York Giants (9-4) - The G-Men play a desperate Chiefs team at home this weekend before finishing on the road against the rival Redskins and listless Raiders. Tiki Barber has had an under-the-radar MVP season, but Eli Manning has shown his youth by tossing some careless interceptions lately. Plus, the only team he has beaten on the road so far in his career is the jayvee-like 49ers. ODDS: 3-2.

Dallas Cowboys (8-5) - The next two weeks are at the Redskins and at the Panthers, both fighting to stay alive in the postseason hunt, before hosting the Rams in Week 17. Drew Bledsoe saved the season in a comeback effort against the Chiefs last week, proving once again that he can still throw the ball if he has weapons and is protected in the pocket. Bill Parcells needs to pick a running back and stick with him, but will it be last year’s breakout star Julius Jones or this year’s surprise hit Marion Barber? ODDS: 3-1.

Washington Redskins (7-6) - Three divisional matchups remain, with the Cowboys and Giants coming to The District before the `Skins travel to face the Eagles. Clinton Portis has gotten stronger as the season has progressed, but Mark Brunell has taken a few steps back after his blistering start. Washington might finish strong, but that ugly home loss to the Raiders in November cost them dearly. ODDS: 10-1.

Chicago Bears (9-4) - The schedule will be tough with the Falcons coming to town this week before finishing on the road against two divisional rivals, the Packers and Vikings. The Bears seemed to be a lock for the North title not too long ago, but a bad loss in Pittsburgh last Sunday coupled with an inexplicable six-game winning streak by Minnesota suddenly makes it interesting. Lovie Smith needs to go ahead and pull the trigger on Rex Grossman at quarterback because rookie Kyle Orton has done all he can do. ODDS: 3-2.

Minnesota Vikings (8-5) - At home against the Steelers, on the road versus the Ravens, and then back in the Humphrey Dome against the Bears, which could decide the division. When you consider all the embarrassments this team has had to endure, not to mention a season-ending knee injury to Daunte Culpepper, Mike Tice has scalped his way into the Coach of the Year discussion. Brad Johnson deserves a ton of credit, but the defense can’t possibly keep generating turnovers this way. ODDS: 5-1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-4) - It starts in the cold this week at the Patriots, but the Bucs finish with two at home against the Falcons and nomadic Saints. Chris Simms has kept his mistakes to a minimum, and Cadillac Williams is showing that he is every bit as tough as he is fast. The defense is aging, but Derrick Brooks & Company still get the job done. ODDS: 2-1.

Carolina Panthers (9-4) - A pseudo-road game in Baton Rouge against the Saints this week, then the Cowboys at home before finishing at the Falcons. Jake Delhomme has curiously struggled of late, and that once red-hot defense looked awfully pedestrian in a home loss to the Bucs last Sunday. Chances are, the winner of the season finale in the Georgia Dome makes the postseason while the other prepares for `06. ODDS: 3-1.

Atlanta Falcons (8-5) - The stretch drive includes three losable games, on the road against the Bears and Bucs, then the Panthers at home. Atlanta averages 173 yards per game both rushing and passing, which is fantastic for the former but brutal for the latter. This defense was the real MVP of their playoff run last year, but they have had a tough time stopping anybody on the ground this season. ODDS: 9-1.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) - On the road the next two weeks against the Vikings and Browns before facing the rudderless Lions at home to end the season. A three-game losing streak had the Steel Curtain gasping for air, but an impressive win at home against the Bears got them back in the fight. If Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker can continue to be the latest installment of Thunder and Lightning, they certainly have enough muscle to finish 11-5. ODDS: 3-1.

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) - The Jags have by far the easiest remaining schedule of all the contenders, with home games against the 49ers and Titans sandwiched around a trip to play the Texans. David Garrard has filled in nicely for Byron Leftwich under center, and the power of Greg Jones has proven to be a nice complement to the speed of Fred Taylor. Although the sting of a Week 16 home loss to a going-nowhere Houston squad last season still haunts the Jax faithful. ODDS: 3-2.

San Diego Chargers (8-5) - Just an unforgiving stretch drive as they close it out on the road against the Colts and Chiefs before hosting the Broncos in the finale. The triumvirate of Drew Brees, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates had a lot of pundits thinking the Chargers could be the second-best team in football behind Indy, but an inexcusable home loss to the Dolphins last Sunday put a serious dent in their postseason aspirations. If Tony Dungy decides to rest his star players a bit this week, maybe San Diego can jazz-flute its way to an upset. ODDS: 5-1

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) - Dick Vermeil’s crew has a rough finish to the season as well, facing the Giants on the road this week before two home dates with the Chargers and Bengals. Larry Johnson has the barbecue crowd wondering aloud, “Priest Who?”, and Trent Green continues to have success through the air without any hint of a play-making wide receiver. But like always, this defense just can not stop anybody with the game on the line. ODDS: 4-1.

Look for both the Giants and Cowboys to make it out of the NFC East, with one of them winning the division and the other as a wild card. Same story for the South, as both the Bucs and Panthers should sing a similar tune. The Bears will hold on in the North most likely, with the Redskins, Vikings, and Falcons coming up short.

In the AFC, the Jaguars should be a lock considering their opponents the next three weeks, and the Steelers look to have re-established their identity just in time to make the dance. The Chargers and Chiefs both have a tough road to hoe, plus one will probably eliminate the other when they meet in Week 16.

But when you consider the Colts are staking their claim as the best team the NFL has ever seen, the rest of the league is probably playing for a silver medal anyway.

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John Crist is a longtime contributor to the CSR, and the Editor-in-Chief of Bear Report Magazine. Check it out and become a Bears Insider. You can contact him at johncrist@yahoo.com.

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