Fighting for Roses

By: Eli Kaberon

Some people just refuse to learn from their own mistakes. For example, Ben Gordon still thinks he can drain 20-foot fade-away jumpers with a hand in his face, even though he’s shooting under 40 percent this season. Ozzie Guillen continued to bring Mike MacDougal out of his bullpen (54 appearances in 2007) despite the right-hander’s 6.80 ERA. And Rex Grossman kept thinking his strong arm would be able to out-throw defensive backs… and we all how that turned out.

Add Las Vegas odds-makers to this distinguished group of non-learners. Back on October 6, these people made USC a 41-point favorite to defeat Stanford, only to see the Cardinal pull off a shocking 24-23 win in the LA Coliseum. A little over a month later, on November 10, the casinos made Illinois a 151/2-point underdog when they squared off with #1 Ohio State. The Illini pulled off a stunning upset of their own, winning 28-21, and largely dominating the Buckeyes.

Now USC is set to play Illinois in the Rose Bowl on New Years Day, and it has become apparent that either Las Vegas has a grudge against our beloved Land of Lincoln or they simply don’t know when they’ve made a mistake. The current line for the Rose Bowl is USC -14 - meaning that if you wanted to bet for the Trojans to win (in Las Vegas, of course; or only for entertainment purposes) you think they will win by more than two touchdowns. That’s a bigger point spread than any other bowl game.

I understand that the spread does not symbolize the predicted margin of victory. Its purpose is to ensure an equal number of bets on both teams so that the casinos don’t lose money, so the line often changes based on which side is getting more action. But the very fact that there is such a large spread for such a high-profile bowl game means that not a lot of people think the Illini can win the game straight up.

But the truth is, they can win. Ron Zook’s club has the quarterback, the running back, and enough on defense to give Southern Cal all they can handle to kick off 2008. This college football season has seen more upsets than ever before - who says there can’t be one more?

Just appearing in the Rose Bowl is big for U of I. The Orange and Blue haven’t been to Pasadena for New Years since 1984, when UCLA crushed the Illini 45-9. They haven’t won the game since 1964, when current head coach Ron Zook was nine years old. But even more than the historical aspect, this game can have a huge impact on the Illinois football program.

The so-called ‘Grand-daddy of Them All’ is the most famous bowl game outside of the National Championship, and will be watched by millions all around the country. If Zook and his staff are lucky, included in those millions will be some of the nation’s best high school football players. Those players will see the Fighting Illini playing in a big time bowl, in one of the nation’s most historic football venues, against a tradition-rich opponent and think to themselves, “Maybe I’d like to go to the University of Illinois and help them try to win a Big Ten and National Championship.” That’s why it is important that the Illini play well come January 1.

Quarterback Juice Williams is the most important player on the Illinois roster in their attempt to pull the upset. In the team’s biggest wins of the season - October 6 versus #5 Wisconsin and the upset at Ohio State in November - Williams was nearly flawless. Versus the Badgers he completed 12 of 19 pass attempts with one touchdown, and added 92 rushing yards to lead the Illini to a 31-26 victory. Against OSU he was even better, throwing for all four Illini touchdowns as well as running for 70 yards, including the game winning third-down conversion in the fourth quarter. In those 120 minutes of football, not one Williams pass was intercepted by the opponent.

The problem with Williams, though, is that for every great game he has there’s a poor one to go along with it. To beat a team the caliber of USC, Juice - not to be confused with a former USC running back known as The Juice - has to make sure he holds onto the football. In Illinois’ three 2007 losses, Fighting Illini quarterbacks have thrown twice as many interceptions as touchdowns (backup QB Eddie McGee saw playing time in all three games).

USC has a very aggressive defense, and only allowed 179 passing yards per game, good for seventh in the nation. One costly turnover, and that might be it for the Illini’s Rose Bowl chances. Being a running QB will help Williams, because it should keep defenders on their toes and allow the talented Illinois receiving core to get down the field. But if he doesn’t hold on to the ball, Coach Zook may have no choice but to go to McGee, the better passer of the two.

Thankfully, Williams won’t have to do it alone when U of I has the ball. Junior running back Rashard Mendenhall, the Big Ten’s Offensive Player of the Year, is a workhorse who will surely attract the attention of the Trojan’s best defenders. Mendenhall ran for more than 1,500 yards - first in the Big Ten during the regular season - and scored 18 total touchdowns (16 rushing), the third most points scored in the conference. Considered by many to be one of the five best runners in the entire country, Mendenhall will need to get the tough yards using his speed and power on the ground. That will allow the Illinois offense to use their play-action passes and quarterback draws, which were their biggest plays in the Ohio State upset.

Leading the way for Mendenhall and Williams is an underrated group of blockers. Fullback Russ Weil started his Fighting Illini career as a linebacker and it shows. The senior loves to go out and hit people, and he’s been the leading force on many of the biggest runs of the season. Left tackle Xavier Fulton is a great run-blocker, but his biggest task against the Trojans will be defending All-Pac 10 defensive end Lawrence Jackson, who had 14 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks in 2007. If Jackson is bearing down on Juice Williams all afternoon, it could be a long game for Illinois fans.

But the key line battle will be between Illinois All-American guard Martin O’Donnell and USC All-American defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis. O’Donnell - the first Illini offensive lineman to be named to the Associated Press All-America first team since Dick Butkus in 1963 - is a four-year starter for the Orange and Blue and the anchor of the O-Line. If he can create wide running lanes for Mendenhall to run through, like he’s been doing all year, there’s no doubt that Illinois can give themselves a chance; but handling Ellis will be a tough task.

When Southern Cal has the ball, it will be up to an improved Illinois defense to limit an inconsistent Trojans attack. Linebacker J Leman, a second team AP All-American, led the Fighting Illini in tackles with 124 - he’ll have to slow a USC running game that had three backs run for 400 or more yards this season. On occasion, the ‘07 Trojans have looked like their 2005 model - which featured Heisman Trophy winners Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush - including when they scored 49 points at Nebraska in mid-September and 44 at Arizona State on Thanksgiving night. But other times they have looked stagnant, and it shows in their 42nd-ranked scoring offense at 31.3 points per game, down from 18th nationally in ‘06 and second in ‘05.

Those inconsistencies have been a major key in USC’s two defeats this season. Being the pre-season #1 team, many people thought that this year’s squad at Southern Cal would be the best of the Pete Carroll era. But in this year of the upset in college football, nothing turned out as planned.

When the college football year began way back on September 1, most analysts of the sport said that by mid-season, fans would be talking non-stop about the rule changes the NCAA put in about moving the kickoff yard line and changing the clock rules to make the games shorter. Yet it only took one game on that opening Saturday for those changes to become meaningless. After division I-AA school Appalachian State took down the fifth-ranked Michigan Wolverines 34-32 in the Big House, the tone was set for the entire year.

USC lost twice in the regular season. So did LSU, who was at the top of the polls both times they were beaten. The team that was ranked number two in the Associated Press Poll lost seven times throughout the 13-week season. And the number one and number two teams in the polls lost on the same weekend three times this year, including the final Saturday when both Missouri and West Virginia could have locked up spots in the National Championship. The two best teams in the polls hadn’t lost on the same day since 1996, and it happened three times in ‘07.

With all that craziness throughout the year, there is no reason to think that the Fighting Illini can’t go in to Pasadena and come out as Rose Bowl Champions. USC may be the higher-ranked program, and have more history and prestige, but this year has shown us that nothing goes according to plan. Juice Williams and Rashard Mendenhall could have huge days, and the Trojans offense could stall and be unable to match U of I on the scoreboard.

Illinois could win the Rose Bowl, and make all the gamblers who took USC -14 feel sorry that they didn’t learn from their mistakes.

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Eli Kaberon is a 2005 graduate of Evanston Township High School and currently is attending Columbia College in the loop, majoring in print journalism. A life-long fan of the Cubs, Bears and Bulls, Eli also works as a seat vendor at Wrigley Field and has sold hot dogs to everyone ranging from Bears tight end Greg Olsen to Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich. Eli can be reached at ekaberon@yahoo.com.

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