Playoff Push

By: Charlie Danoff

Current Record: 24-36 … 1.5 Games out of a playoff spot.

Following Tuesday’s easy, but important win against the Memphis Grizzlies, the Bulls record is now 24-36. Following Wednesday night’s action, they are 1.5 games out of the playoffs.

Despite the fact nearly every possible thing has gone wrong this season, the Bulls still have a very solid shot of making the postseason. Breaking out my extensive collection of Tarot Cards, I’m going to try and peek into the future to see what it holds for Chicago.

Examining the remaining games in their schedule, I will try to divine if they will get an invitation to the dance floor, or if they’ll be the creeps standing just outside it, watching.

Also, as a special treat to my billions of readers, I’ve chosen Amer out of all of you to respond to in a new mailbag feature. Please e-mail me at danoff.charles@gmail.com if you’d like to see yourself included in next week’s column.

Games They Should Win:

Philadelphia (2)
New Jersey (1)
Indiana (1)
Milwaukee (2)
Washington (1)
Miami (1)

Despite the fact two of the teams in this group currently are in the top eight in the conference, none of them are over .500. All of these teams have serious flaws. New Jersey, Miami and Washington were the only ones in the group to make the playoffs last season.

Since then, Jersey’s lost their top player, while Miami has morphed into the worst team in the NBA. Eddie Jordan would probably win the Coach of the Year award in any other season for the job he’s done with his short-handed Wizards crew, but that award’s earmarked for Byron Scott, unfortunately for Eddie.

Philadelphia is having a really good year in their own right as well, but at the end of the day this is a really bad team. There is absolutely no reason the Bulls should lose to them.

Indiana and Milwaukee are right near the Bulls in the standings, but both have less talent, and deserve to be where they are. Given how they’ve played, the Bulls deserve their record as well, but they’re suffering from one of the weirdest cold shooting streaks in NBA history and injuries. Not to mention the fact, Ben Wallace started the season as their de-facto “leader.”

Looking over the group, that’s a total of 8 wins for the Bulls. If they want any hope of making the playoffs, they really need to win all eight.

50/50 Chance to Win:
Cleveland (3)
Atlanta (2)
Orlando (2)
Toronto (1)

Coming off my prediction from last column that,

“I’ll say it now and remember you heard it here first: if the Cleveland faces the Bulls in the playoffs, the Bulls will win the series.”

Last Sunday’s 95-86 loss makes me look slightly silly. Nevertheless, I still do not respect the Cavs, Danny Ferry and especially not the NBA’s Biggest Punk (AKA LeBron James).

They are just such a flawed team, and nobody has the balls to stand up to LeBron. I mean, you think it mattered that Steve Kerr got in a fistfight with MJ? Of course it does. The respect he earned for Kerr as a result of that incident and his consistent shooting is what allowed him to trust Steve to hit the game winning shot of the ‘97 finals.

But, I digress, even with the better record, I really see the Cavs and Bulls as about equals. Remember, last year it came down to the wire with who was going to get the second seed of the playoffs, or the fifth.

And now Cleveland has Ben Wallace, which will only make them worse.

Looking at the other teams, Atlanta is one of the surprises of the NBA this season. Thanks to countless consecutive lotteries, they have a lot of talent. Now that Mike Bibby is there to run the point, and Al Horford is anchoring the inside game, I see them being a serious dark horse come playoff time.

Orlando and Toronto are good teams, but young and not great by any means. Both need to make a few more moves before they can build legitimate title contenders around their tall young stars. That said, Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh are basically the ideal type of guys to start building a championship team around.

By my rudimentary math, the Bulls should win 4 of these 8 games. To keep playing deep into April, they need to win at least six. Considering these are all Eastern Conference teams, that’s really quite doable.

Oh, and in case you were wondering, even after his 50 last night, I’ll still put my money on the Bulls over the Cavs in a 7 game series. Just wait.

Games They Shouldn’t Win:
Detroit (1)
Boston (2)
Utah (1)
New Orleans (1)
San Antonio (1)

These five teams are amongst the best in the NBA. Although the Bulls have somehow gone 3-0 against the Pistons this season, you know Detroit will do everything in their power to avoid the sweep.

Though Boston still has to at least make the Finals to have their season be considered a success, they’ll be playing hard every night to try and secure the top seed in the East. Playing two games against them down the stretch here will be tough.

Utah, New Orleans and San Antonio are three of the best teams in the Western Conference. Even after their real impressive recent win against Denver, the Bulls have not fared well against the West. They are going to have play close to perfect every night against those teams to have any shot of winning.

In theory, I guess, the Bulls should win none of these games. Being the self-loathing, biased reporter I am, I think they can steal two of the six. If they can somehow find a way to win three, they’ll be in a really, really good position to make the playoffs.

Looking over the schedule as a whole then, I predict the Bulls will win seven of their easy games, six of the 50/50 ones (including a sweep of the Cavs) and three of the games they should lose. That means a 16-6 record over their last 22.

Leaving their regular season record at 40-42.

Given they’ve only managed to win 24 out of their first 60 games, you could say I’m letting my heart get in the way of my head, and you’d have a point.

Yet, being as objective as I can possibly be, I really feel the Bulls are a much better team than when they started 2-11. Hughes and Gooden are an upgrade over Wallace and Smith, plus Hinrich, Gordon and Deng are all playing light years ahead of where they were then. Thabo and Joakim have also emerged as consistent above-average players since then.

At the end of the day, what matters most is that it’s really, really sweet to play in a conference where you don’t have to be .500 to make the playoffs.

Mailbag:

This week’s email comes from Amer, in response to my “Evaluating the Bulls” column. I will respond to his criticism with bullets, but unfortunately not from a real gun.

Hey Charlie, my name is Amer. I am an avid Bulls fan (an aspiring writer myself) and I read your article on ranking the Bulls players in terms of their value.

I really like your analysis because you seem to be one of the few people that realize that Kirk Hinrich is completely overrated, that he is not a true PG, and that he is more of a sixth man.

  • Just so you know readers, while I am egotistical to a disgusting degree, appealing to my vanity will get you no points.

I did, however find fault in your analysis of Luol Deng. I’ve been telling people for years that Luol, like Kirk, is an over-rated asset. I hear people say that he might become and All-Star and I laugh. Luol has no ability to create his own shot. In the NBA the ability to create your own shot and create shots for others is what separates the men from the boys.

John Paxson, like you, seems to love Loul. You don’t take into consideration that even in the last two years there have been two SF’s, Rudy Gay & Kevin Durant, that are far better players & prospects than Deng. Donte Green from Syracuse who will be coming out this year is a better prospect than Loul Deng, and so is Micheal Beasley, who might just decide to play SF instead of PF. You list TT as a better prospect than Deng. I agree that TT has a much higher ceiling at SF. I can list 10 SF that are better than Deng. How is Loul ever going to be an All-Star?

  • First off, I’ll give you Luol is no Kevin Durant. He’s not potentially one of the top five players in the NBA by any stretch. Nevertheless, he’s much better than Rudy Gay. In their head to head match up Tuesday night, they had identical points and minutes. The difference was, Luol nearly had a double-double with 9 rebounds to Gay’s 5, along with 5 assists to Gay’s 1. I like Gay, and honestly I feel his ceiling is higher than Luol. But Luol’s a much better all-around player today, while Gay is still just a scorer who plays absolutely no defense.
  • You are wrong when you say he can’t create his own shot, also. He plays more within the framework of the team’s offense than that, anyway, but when he does need to get off a shot he has the combination of skills to get it done.
  • Aside from Green, overall Luol is less of an offensive threat than any of the other players you listed. The thing is, he is a much player in the many different facets of the game of basketball than the rest who are very one dimensional.
  • As I’ve said before, he will never be the best player on a championship team or even a franchise player for an average team. That said, he has the talent to be a damn good second banana. And though that doesn’t sound so amazing, very, very few players can do it.
  • Finally, I’d welcome you to list 10 SF’s better than Luol.

I also disagree with you about Noah. He is rebounder/shotblocker. At best Noah is poor-mans Tyson Chander, which basically means he is Samual Dalembert. Post players are hard to come by. In three years Al Horford will be scoring 17-20 points a game. Is that not more valuable than a player who grabs 10 rebounds per game.

  • First off, Noah is already a better offensive player than Tyson Chandler. Tyson just happens to be fortunate enough to play with Chris Paul.
  • Noah understands how offensive systems work, and has to be one of the best passing rookie big men of all time. His post game still leaves a LOT to be desired, but his head is light years ahead of Tyson’s or Dalembert’s.
  • Horford may be a better scorer, but I think this is a theme of your criticisms. You’re failing to acknowledge the subtle aspects of the game where these two Bulls excel that do not necessarily show up in the stat sheet.
  • Finally, remember that after the first national title, it was Noah who was talked about as the top three pick, not Horford. With defenses then focusing on him, Joakim chose to make statistical sacrifices, as well as forgo millions, to win another NCAA title. Would Al have done the same?

If you haven’t already, I ask you to watch a player by the name of Devon Hardin who plays for Cal Berkeley. He is going to be every bit as good as Noah, and he will most likely be drafted 15-20 in the 2008 NBA draft.

  • I haven’t, but thanks for the tip, I will. If what you say is true, hopefully the Bulls can nab him this summer.

Lastly, I don’t understand your contempt for Ben Gordon. With out Ben Gordon and his forth-quarter heroics the Bulls would have most likely had 30 less wins the last three years. How was Andres Nocioni more valueable than that? BG can be the 3rd best player on any team in the NBA. He can be Barbosa, Ginobili, Lamar Odom, ect. Best of all he can create his own shot, the most valuable asset in the NBA.

  • I have no idea where the Odom and Ginobli comparisons come in, but I will grant you Barbosa. It was tough for me to place Noce ahead of him in my asset rankings, but it was predicated on what I expect to be Gordon’s exorbitant contract demands this summer. Obviously, making only $4.8 million this year to Noce’s $8.5, Gordon’s the more valuable asset. You may have me here on this one, but I’ll get back to you this summer.

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Charlie is an aspiring writer and a caddy at Skokie Country Club. Odds are you will hear a lot about him in the years to come, so if you want to be the first kid on the block familiar with his work, click here.

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  1. [...] he did leave, just about everyone thought Chicago would turn into the 49-win team from a year ago, including Charlie Danoff: Looking over the schedule as a whole then, I predict the Bulls will win seven of their easy games, [...]

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