The Best Time of the Year

By: Eli Kaberon

It’s the best time of the year, March Madness. 65 teams, 64 games, six rounds, four regions, three weekends, and eventually, one champion. The only problem with it is that there’s so much pressure to fill out that bracket and win your office/school pool (no gambling of course), it makes it tough to actually figure out where to start.

Thankfully for you, that’s where I can help. Think of me as Mr. Wolf from Pulp Fiction; you’ve got a problem, I know how to clean it up. I’ve watched college hoops all season, figuring out the strengths and weaknesses of all the major teams. To start everything off, here are five quick facts I researched that might come in handy when filling out your sheet of perfection.

1) A 16 seed has never beaten a #1. Since the tournament was expanded to 64 (then 65) teams in 1985, the 16’s are 0-92. That means Portland State, Texas-Arlington, Mississippi Valley State and either Mt. Saint Mary’s or Coppin State, thanks for coming, do not pass Go or collect $200.

2) The last five coaches to win their first national title (Tom Izzo in 2000, Gary Williams in 2002, Jim Boeheim in 2003, Roy Williams in 2005 and Billy Donovan in 2006) all were previous losers in the Final Four. Another interpretation of that stat is: Yes, experience on the bench does matter in cutting down the nets.

3) It has never happened that all four #1 seeds made the Final Four, but two of the past three years - 2005 Illinois vs. North Carolina and 2007 Florida vs. Ohio State - top seeds met in the National Title game.

4) Saying you picked a nine seed over an eight in the opening round doesn’t really count as an upset, but it is smart. Since 1985, nine seeds have won 55 percent of the matchups. The other first round surprise, in terms of percentages, is that 11’s have beat sixes the exact same amount as 12’s have defeated fives. (Both 11’s and 12’s are 29-63, meaning they win 32 percent of the time.)

5) Six of the past seven National Champs have had a future top-three NBA draft pick on their roster. (2001 Duke had Jason Williams, 2003 Syracuse had Carmello Anthony, 2004 UConn had Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon, 2005 North Carolina had Marvin Williams and the 2006/2007 Florida Gators had Al Horford.) Only Maryland in 2002 didn’t include a player with that distinction.

Those are all helpful hints, but it doesn’t provide an answer to who will win it all come April 7 in San Antonio. And unfortunately, neither will this. But here are in-depth breakdowns of all four regions, including analysis of the four #1 seeds, other teams to consider making the Final Four and potential sleepers that can cause havoc in any pool.

East

The Top Line- For the third time in four years, the University of North Carolina is the number one seed in a quarter of the bracket. This year’s UNC squad might not be on the level of the ‘05 National Champs…yet. Point guard Ty Lawson, who missed six games in February with sprained ankle, still isn’t 100 percent and hasn’t played over 30 minutes in a game since his return. Still, the Tar Heels are the nation’s best team. Forward Tyler Hansbrough, the likely National Player of the Year, is a guaranteed double-double when he steps on the floor and the UNC offense, which had five guys average over eight points a game, is almost unstoppable when at its best. And with Lawson getting close to full speed, that’s exactly what it is.

The Contenders- The NCAA Tournament is supposedly seeded on an S-Curve, meaning the region with the best #1 seed would have the worst #2, the best #3, etc. This is designed to give the top team in the land the easiest road to the National Title. So how does it work that in the East, which has top-ranked North Carolina and also has Tennessee, the very best of the two seeds? It doesn’t make any sense, but if the Heels and Vols both make it to the Elite Eight, they have the chance to put on the best game of the year, as each squad likes to run up-and-down the court and jack up threes. Tennessee will have to work pretty hard to get there though, potentially facing a good South Alabama squad in their home state (game would be played in Birmingham) and then Louisville, which just happens to have won nine games in a row before losing their last two. Other elite teams in the East are Hoosier state schools Notre Dame (fifth seed), Butler (seven seed) and Indiana (eight seed). All three have their respective conferences Player of the Year winners, though both Notre Dame and Indiana failed to win a game in their conference tournaments.

Bracket Buster- While the king of the bracket buster, George Mason University, does have a spot in the East, the Patriots are not my pick to cause the most chaos in this region. Neither is Boise State, the 14th seed in the East and the ultimate underdog in college football. Instead its 11th seeded St. Josephs, the last team to make the tournament. The Hawks, who like North Carolina have five scorers putting up over eight points a game, are led by juniors and seniors and an experienced coach in Phil Martelli. Look for them to take down a young Oklahoma squad in round one.

South

The Top Line- Memphis won 33 games, lost only one, and beat elite teams like Georgetown, USC and UConn during the season. The Tigers are incredibly balanced, with ten guys that play close to ten minutes a game or more. And they have maybe the nation’s best backcourt duo, with freshman point guard Derrick Rose and junior shooting guard Chris Douglas-Roberts. So what’s not to like about this squad? Well, the Tigers haven’t defeated a tournament team since Gonzaga on Jan. 26, which raises questions about how close to full strength they are. Adding to that is the fact they’ve been knocked out in the Elite Eight the past two tournaments, which helps the argument that playing inferior competition in Conference USA doesn’t prepare them for March basketball. And then there’s the big one, the Tigers’ 59.6 percent shooting from the free throw line which ranks 340th in the country out of a 341 schools.

The Contenders- No squad in the country comes into the big dance on a more impressive run than Pittsburgh. The fourth seed Panthers were ranked sixth in the country at one point during the season, but after a series of injuries and bad luck, they fell out of the polls. Since the return of point guard Levance Fields, though, Pitt’s been nearly unbeatable. The school just won the Big East Tournament, winning four games in four days, three of which came against ranked teams. Fields, matched with physical big men Sam Young and DeJuan Blair, give Pitt a great inside-outside combo. On the other side of the South bracket, the best team is the two seed Texas. Led by point guard D.J. Augustin, a first-team All American, the Longhorns hold on to the ball better than anybody else in the country, with turnovers on only 14 percent of all their possessions. Other candidates to make it to San Antonio from the South are the three seed Stanford and the six seed Marquette, with the Cardinal being led by center Brook Lopez and the Golden Eagles guards Jerel McNeal and Dominic James.

Bracket Buster- My apologies to Andy Bernard, the a cappella singing sales director on the TV show ‘The Office’, but I don’t expect his alma mater Cornell to advance. Instead, the bracket buster from the South might just be the Gaels of St. Mary’s, the region’s ten seed. With Australian point guard Patty Mills running the show, the team won 25 games including wins over tourney teams Drake, Oregon, San Diego and Gonzaga. Their first round matchup versus Miami should be a challenge, but if the Gaels survive that, I think they could give Texas a run for their money in round two.

Midwest

The Top Line- It’s a tough argument, but a case could be made that from top to bottom, no roster is more stacked with talent than the one residing at the University of Kansas, the number one seed in the Midwest. According to kenpom.com, the Jayhawks are best all around team in the land. They have the countries best offensive efficiency and fifth best defensive efficiency, meaning scored the most points for every 100 possessions they had the ball and allowed the fifth least amount of points for every 100 possessions their opponents controlled their rock. But there is a reason that KU is the lowest of the four number one seeds. They didn’t win their regular season conference title, losing out to Texas. Their best wins outside of the Big 12 were USC and Arizona, neither of which is considered cream-of-the-crop competition. And their coach, Bill Self, has a history of coming up short, taking three schools - Tulsa, Illinois and Kansas - to the Elite Eight but never has been to the Final Four.

The Contenders- One of the trendy picks to make the Final Four is Georgetown, the Midwest’s two seed. Led by center Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas made it to the tournaments third weekend a year ago before running into Greg Oden and Ohio State in the national semifinal. This season, the Big East regular season champs are 27-5 and have a very difficult attack to stop, a modified version of the Princeton offense. If they were to make it to the Sweet Sixteen in Detroit, it would be very interesting to see them face off with the region’s three seed, Wisconsin. The Badgers play maybe the best defense in the entire country, a tough man-to-man which was on full display during the Big Ten Tournament that UW won. If the Midwest’s champ isn’t any of the brackets top three seeds, look for it to be the winner of the USC-Kansas State game, which features two of the nation’s best freshmen: the Trojans’ OJ Mayo and the Wildcats’ Michael Beasley. Best of luck to you though if you chose a Final Four team coached by Tim Floyd.

Bracket Buster- Here’s a name that true college hoops fans know but much of the country doesn’t: Stephen Curry. The son of former Charlotte Hornets sharp-shooter Dell Curry, Stephan learned well from his pops. He averaged over 25 points per game this season, shot over 43% from three-point range and is leading the Wildcats to a current 22-game winning streak, the longest in the country. Curry’s backcourt mate, Barrington, IL native Jason Richards, isn’t too bad either. Richards hands out eight assists a game, which ranks first in all of Division I hoops. Davidson faces known Cinderella squad Gonzaga in round one, but with the ‘Cats playing in Raleigh - about two hours from the Davidson campus - it should essentially be a home court win for Curry, Richards and company. Then comes a big challenge versus Georgetown, a game I think Davidson has a chance of pulling off.

West

The Top Line- There’s no school in the country with a tradition of winning basketball like UCLA. The Bruins have put up 11 championship banners in Pauley Pavilion, ten under legendary coach John Wooden. The past two seasons, UCLA has made it to the Final Four, getting knocked out each time by the eventual champion Florida Gators. And this year, the boys from Westwood are 31-3 with all five starters potentially being future NBA players. With freshman center Kevin Love, a first-team All American, manning the post and guards Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook controlling the perimeter, scoring on the Bruins is one of the toughest tasks in the country. One of their downfalls though may be poor outside shooting, as the team shoots only 34% from three-point range, by far the lowest of the four #1 seeds.

The Contenders- As if having UCLA’s 11 titles in the region wasn’t enough, the tournament selection committee felt it was necessary to add Duke - three championships since 1991 -, UConn - two championships since 1999 - and Arizona - making their 24th consecutive tournament appearance including the 1997 championship - to the West. Both Duke and Connecticut are threats to win it all, but for very different reasons. The second seed Blue Devils, who last season were knocked out in the opening round of the tournament for the first time since 1996, have maybe the best collection of wing players in the nation. Five players average double figures scoring, and they are all either guards or small forwards. UConn, the four seed, also has some nice small guys, but their most important player stands 7′ 3″. Center Hasheem Thabeet, who puts up nearly 10 points, eight rebounds and five blocked shots per game, has the ability to take over a contest. Some other threats in the West are Xavier and Drake, schools that hate to be called mid-majors, so we’ll call them ‘good teams from bad leagues’. Both schools have nice wins - Xavier over Indiana and Kansas State, Drake over Butler and Iowa - and shouldn’t be taken lightly despite their poor conferences.

Bracket Buster- Georgia came out of nowhere to bust the SEC Tournament bracket, winning three games in about 30 hours last weekend in Atlanta, including two in the same day. Now the Bulldogs are the West’s #14 seed and have the chance to make this incredible story even better. Despite their 16 losses on the season, including a stretch where 11 out of 13 games, UGA has a chance to erase it all if they can somehow upset Xavier in round one. If they are to do that, they’ll need a big game from Sundiata Gaines, the team’s leader in points, rebounds, assists and steals.

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Eli Kaberon is a 2005 graduate of Evanston Township High School and currently is attending Columbia College in the loop, majoring in print journalism. A life-long fan of the Cubs, Bears and Bulls, Eli also works as a seat vendor at Wrigley Field and has sold hot dogs to everyone ranging from Bears tight end Greg Olsen to Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich. Eli can be reached at ekaberon@yahoo.com.

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