Historic Final Four

By: Eli Kaberon

Two years ago, the 2006 Final Four featured a unique group of schools. Florida, UCLA, George Mason and LSU were the first quartet since 1980 to make college hoops’ final weekend with no number one seeds remaining, included the sports all-time biggest Cinderella story in G.M. and had a combined record of 116-27 entering college basketball’s premier event.

Last season, the national semifinals were a bit different. It again included Florida and UCLA, as well as Ohio State and Georgetown. All were either one or two seeds, had six of the top nine 2007 NBA Draft picks on their collective rosters and had an even better combined record, 127-19, than the ‘06 group entering the season’s last weekend.

Yet neither of the past two years can compare with the talent that will be on the floor this Saturday in the 2008 Final Four. For the first time in NCAA Tournament history, all four number one seeds have advanced through their regions and made it San Antonio. UCLA is back again, becoming the first team since Michigan State from 1999-2001 to make three consecutive Final Four appearances. The Bruins will face Memphis, who has finally reached the big stage after back-to-back losses in the Elite Eight the past two years. And the other semifinal matches North Carolina and Kansas, who just happen to be two of the most four winningest programs in all of tournament history. The combined record of these four teams this season is an astounding 143-9, a winning percentage of 94%.

With all four teams playing great ball at the moment, the games this weekend at the Alamodome have the chance to go down as all-time classics. But they also have the chance, like many Final Four games do, to be disappointments. Here’s how each game breaks down, with both a best and worst case scenario.

UCLA Bruins versus Memphis Tigers

The first of the two semifinals on Saturday features a couple of teams with very different styles of play. UCLA plays a half court game, relying on center Kevin Love’s post-up abilities, great defense and an experienced group of players who know what it takes to win. Memphis on the other hand likes to use it speed, depth and athleticism to wear down its opponents, both on offense and defense. Coaches Ben Howland (UCLA) and John Calipari (UM) both have Final Four experience, with Howland taking the Bruins the past two seasons and Calipari leading UMass there in 1996. So each coach knows what has to be done. But this game won’t be decided by the guys on the sidelines; it will be settled by which team dictates the tempo.

According to the kenpom.com , which tracks trends and stats in college basketball, Memphis and UCLA are at different ends of the spectrum when it comes to tempo. The Tigers rank 64th nationally in the category, averaging over 70 offensive possessions a game, meaning they like to run it up and down the court, pushing every chance they get, and trying to not use much of the shot clock. Considering they shoot over 53% from two-point range, it seems like a good strategy. Guard Derrick Rose, who is averaging 21 points, six assists and six rebounds during the tournament, is the man in charge of the Tigers attack. If the Chicago native continues to emulate his childhood idol, the one he honors by wearing #23 on his jersey, it will be tough for UCLA to stop Memphis from playing at their pace.

UCLA can run and gun for a while, but would prefer to do their best John Legend impression and just take it slow. The Bruins average tempo is 64 possessions a game, which is 258th in the country. Though point guard Darren Collison is very quick, Coach Howland prefers his guys to walk it up the court, set up their offense and get the best shot possible. It has worked well, especially since UCLA is one of the best teams in the country at getting multiple chances at the basket. Almost 40% of the teams’ rebounds are on the offensive end, with freshman Love leading the team in the category. Add to that one of the most effective defensive units in the entire sport and it’s no shock that the Bruins don’t push the pace.

So with those contrasting styles, is there any way this matchup can produce a good game? Only if the tempo is somewhere in the middle, one that neither team is perfectly comfortable with but one that each can adapt to. Memphis has the ability to slow down a bit, especially since Rose and fellow guard Chris Douglas-Roberts are so good at getting their own shot. And UCLA can put their foot on the gas pedal when they feel like it, especially with Love’s ability to throw perfect 50-foot outlet passes. If the game ends up with scores in the 60’s, it could be one for the ages.

The reverse of that of course would be if one team cannot adjust to the others speed and then gets blown out. While that seems kind of crazy for a couple of teams that have lost a combined four games all year, it happens a lot in national semi-finals. Back in 2003, a Dwyane Wade-led Marquette team made the Final Four by being smart on offense and strong on D. In the semis they faced off with a run-and-gun Kansas team, one that featured more speed than the Golden Eagles had seen all year. Before D-Wade and his teammates knew it they were getting blown out, trailing at halftime 59-30. The game ended with a 33-point differential, the second largest margin of victory ever in a Final Four contest. That result seems unlikely with Memphis and UCLA, but the possibility of the always-dreaded game where the difference between the teams is ten to 20 points and the outcome is never in question during the second half is very real.

North Carolina Tar Heels versus Kansas Jayhawks

In case you hadn’t heard by now, Roy Williams, the head coach at North Carolina, used to coach at Kansas. He led the Jayhawks for 15 years and won 418 games at the school. In 2000, when the UNC job opened up, Williams declined to take it, saying he wanted to win a National Title at KU. Three years later, in 2003, the Tar Heels job was available again. After a National Title game loss to Syracuse that season, Williams said on national TV, “I could give a shit about Carolina.” A week later, the coach left the plains of Kansas and headed back home to his alma mater. In 2005, the Tar Heels won the National Championship, taking Williams’ name off of the ‘Best coach never to win it all’ list. The current holder of the top position on that list: Bill Self, Williams’ replacement at Kansas.

And that brings us to this game. Roy Williams and his current school versus his former school for the right to play for the National Title. The game has every element of what should be a classic matchup, even without counting the coaching storyline. Both teams are exceptional on offense, as they rank one and two in offensive efficiency in the country. They play good defense as well, with Kansas holding opponents to only 41% shooting from two-point range, the fourth best in the country in that category, while the Tar Heels are beasts on the boards, averaging over 47 rebounds a game, best in the land. And then there are all the explosive players. A combined eight players - four on each team - average double figure points per game. (For comparison purposes, the UCLA-Memphis game only features six players with that distinction)

So what type of game should be expected if both teams are playing well? Well for starters, a lot of fun. Kansas is so efficient on offense because of their tremendous balance, it’s almost impossible for defenses to key in on one guy. Feel like double-teaming Darrell Arthur in post? Fine, then Brandon Rush will drive to the basket. OK, so then try instituting a zone, so he can’t get easy looks. That leaves open shots for guards Mario Chalmers and Sherron Collins. So then play man-to-man and try to stop the shooters from getting clear view. Only then who will stop Darnell Jackson near the hoop? The point is, there are more weapons on the Jayhawks roster than the military found in Iraq. And since they share the ball so well - the team led the nation in assists this season with 690, more than 18 a game - their offense is a thing of beauty to watch.

North Carolina has many similar attributes. The Tar Heels also have are a great passing team, as they finished second to KU in assists this season. They have lots of different ways of scoring, finishing in the top 55 in the country in two-point shooting percentage, three-point shooting percentage and free throw percentage. But the biggest difference between the Heels and the ‘Hawks is that when its crunch time, UNC knows exactly who it’s going to. At the end of a close game, Kansas has a lot of good options, but it doesn’t have the one guy who they know can get them a key hoop. The Tar Heels have Tyler Hansbrough, the National Player of the Year and a unanimous first team All-American. Hansbrough averaged 23 points and 10 rebounds a game this season, and he is especially dangerous at the end of games. That’s because of his ability to fight for every rebound and loose ball, but more importantly, his knack for getting to the free throw line. The junior led the nation in free throw attempts this season with 371, 68 more than the second place finisher. And considering he drains more than 80% of his shots from the charity stripe, his strategy seems to be working well.

This contest, the second of the two Saturday night games, should be a fast-paced affair with scores potentially in the 80’s. The only way this one gets out of hand is if one team gets off to a slow start and gets down by double-digits, then changes their offensive strategy to try and come back and ends up getting buried even deeper. This occurred during the Sweet 16 last week, when Davidson played Wisconsin. Tied at halftime, Davidson took a 13-point lead with over 12 minutes left in the second half. To try and overcome the deficit, the Badgers put up three pointer after three pointer, which is not the strength of the team. Davidson capitalized on Wisconsin’s desperation, extending the lead to 21 points with only five and half minutes left and putting the game out of reach. Kansas and North Carolina don’t seem like the types of teams that would allow themselves to get down that deep, but crazier things have happened.

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    Eli Kaberon is a 2005 graduate of Evanston Township High School and currently is attending Columbia College in the loop, majoring in print journalism. A life-long fan of the Cubs, Bears and Bulls, Eli also works as a seat vendor at Wrigley Field and has sold hot dogs to everyone ranging from Bears tight end Greg Olsen to Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich. Eli can be reached at ekaberon@yahoo.com.

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