Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets: A Repeat of Last Year’s #1 vs. #8?

By: D.K. Wilson

Seven games separate the Los Angeles Lakers from the Denver Nuggets and some pundits believe L.A. is a clear favorite to defeat the Nuggets.

Seven games separate the Boston Celtics and the Detroit Pistons and yet none of these pundits would predict that the Celtics would defeat the Pistons in anything other than a hard-fought six or seven game series.

So what is the disparity in perception between the two series?

Perhaps it’s that Detroit posted an incredible 22-8 record against the Western Conference, second only to Boston’s 25-5 record against the West. Meantime, Denver’s conference record is 31-21. Sure, their record is not as staggering as that of the Celtics and Pistons, but when familiarity is taken into account, the Nugget’s in-conference record is excellent. That 31-21 mark is but three games away from #2-seed and Southwest Division champion New Orleans’ 34-18 record and only two games away from #4-seed and Northwest Division champion Utah’s mark.

Perhaps the disparity is perception is based on what these men want to see occur rather than what will occur. Perhaps the disparity lies in the thought that Denver is too undisciplined on defense and too me-first on offense to come close to defeating the Lakers.

But.

Any NBA “expert” will tell you that when you have two superstars on your team you stand a good chance of going deep into the playoffs. Denver has Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony. These same experts will say that when a superstar reaches the NBA Finals they know what it takes to get there again. Iverson has carried a team to the Finals. The experts will also say that a good playoff team needs a go-to player who can get off his shot against anyone deep into the shot clock. Again, Denver has Melo and AI.

Conversely, who on the Lakers other than Kobe Bryant meets the above criteria? No one. And that is what is so confounding about the Denver-Los Angeles matchup.

On paper you would say Denver is five, Denver in six - easy. Not only does Denver have Anthony and Iverson but they have a dependable elbow-in scorer in Marcus Camby who just so happens to double as one of the NBA’s premier shot blockers. The Nuggets also have Kenyon Martin who is capable of big scoring nights. And they have J.R. Smith, a bona fide microwave, 20 points in 15 minutes-type of scorer coming off the bench. Additionally, Eduardo Najera is just the kind of, do the dirty work, player that every team needs. Anthony Carter can spell Iverson and keep the team steady and running smoothly. Linas Kleiza is a 3-point shooting threat and a capable rebounder.

So, why are the Lakers a prohibitive favorite? Why are all the pundits drinking the Phil Jackson, Bryant Kool-aid?

Here’s why. Unlike the Nuggets, the Lakers have a clearly-defined hierarchy of scorers. Kobe is the number one guy - period. Pau Gasol is number two and the combination of Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher are number three - period. Everybody else gets point where they can. On the Nuggets there is sometimes a struggle between Iverson and Anthony as to who is “the man” in tight situations.

Another distinction between the two teams lies in the fluidity of the triangle offense. When it is clicking - and with Gasol’s insertion into the Lakers’ lineup, it has been clicking quite regularly - it is unstoppable. Anyone can score and because L.A. has a bounty of shooters, everyone does score. At 6′10″ Vladimir Radmonovich causes matchup nightmares for most teams with his ability to shoot the three as easily as he can post up on the block. At 6′ 10″ Lamar Odom can take a defensive rebound and dribble the length of the floor and finish or make the correct pass with the ease of a point guard. Gasol is a reliable shooter from as far as 18-feet out. Fisher seems to hit shots when necessary - period.

Jordan Farmar comes off the bench and, for stretches, is a better point guard than Fisher. He is quick, has unlimited range, is fearless going to the basket, and is a dogged defender. Sasha Vujacic is 6′ 5″, can play either the point or shooting guard positions, is a deadly 3-point shooter, and like Farmar, is an excellent on ball defender. Then the Lakers have a variety of players who bring energy, intelligence, and grit to the floor: Luke Walton, Rony Turiaf, Trevor Ariza, DJ Mbenga, and finally a healthy Chris Mihm all contribute mightily to the Lakers collective effort.

Finally, Lakers head coach Jackson has lamented for the past few years that he has been unable to convert his Red Holtzman-learned pressure defense to today’s, “no-touch” defensive rule. It is a defense that enabled the Michael Jordan-era Chicago Bulls to break the backs of so many opposing teams. Often the Bulls employed a full court, pressure defense to the opposition during the final five minutes of the first half and the first five minutes of games. And in those critical 10 minutes the Bulls would much more often than not separate themselves from their opponents through the turnovers and disarray caused by the defense. Now, at times Los Angeles has proven that it can employ that same pressure defense to rattle point guards and cause offenses to break down.

What the pundits see is that the Los Angeles Lakers are not just Kobe Bryant. And unlike the Nuggets, they consistently play offense and defense as a team.

This series will come to do a few very basic needs. Denver needs to commit to playing defense on every possession. Even lesser defenders like Carmelo Anthony need to put forth the effort on the defensive end and his teammates must be able to recognize and be constantly aware of those weaknesses, and rotate to help without sacrificing their floor balance.

For Los Angeles the series will come down to their ability to trust the triangle and realize that they might have to go deeper into the shot clock to get the shot they want. This particularly applies to Bryant. He must be patient enough to wait until later in the clock to take over a possession. He must also continue to trust his teammates, even if they miss a few shots early in the game.

Neither team has proven the ability to execute these needs in clutch moments - in playoff moments. Simply, the team that executes these needs more consistently than the other will win.

Because the Lakers are younger and because Iverson is such a dominant force, the series could easily turn out to be a publicity nightmare on the level of last year’s Dallas-Golden State #1 vs. #8 matchup. We could well see Kobe Bryant crowned the league’s MVP yet have his team be upset in the first round of the playoffs.

However, I’m going to say this series goes the distance with each team winning on the others’ court along the way. Denver wins if they trust their defense; Los Angeles wins if they trust their offense.

But in the end, I have to believe that Kobe will rise above the moment - and the Lakers will win in seven.

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D.K. Wilson is a freelance sports writer. He is better known on the internet as "DWil," and writes for Sports On My Mind.

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1 Comment

  1. the unique thing about this year’s western conference playoffs is that even if the lower seeded team beats out the higher seeded team (in any matchup, including the 1 vs 8), it won’t be an “upset” because of how tight the rankings are. last year’s golden state upset over dallas was a true upset because there was a 25 game separation between 1 and 8. this year there’s only 7. due to the incredibly tight ranking this year, the ranks really have no meaning, and thus there really is no true upset.

    Comment by nba on April 18, 2008

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