Post Positions Might Make a Difference in Derby

By: Greg Melikov

The morning line 3-1 favorite in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby will break from the outside post position. It won’t be the first time Big Brown has done so in his brief racing career.

The son of Boundary roared out of post 12 in the Florida Derby on March 31 and won by five lengths recording the fastest 1 1/8 miles since 1996 – 1:48. The undefeated 3-year-old made the lead by the first call.

The 3-year-old’s connections, selecting 16th following a draw earlier Wednesday to determine the order in which posts would be selected, went for 20.

That’s a bad omen. Only one horse breaking from that post won in 133 runnings: Clyde Van Dusen in ‘29.

“We prefer just to break on the outside, trainer Richard Dutrow said. “We get assured of a clean trip. If he breaks good, we figure it’s to our advantage. We had a few good choices and felt we took the best shot.”

Dutrow has been really confident before he or his horse even arrived in Louisville. “Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race,” he said last week. “I just haven’t see any other horse with my eyes that I think can beat him,” he said this week.

Illinois Derby victor Recapturetheglory, 20-1 who probably will contest for the lead, will try to become the second winner from post 18. Gato Del Sol did it in ‘82.

Only two posts have failed to produce winners: 17 and 19.

Cowboy Cal, 20-1, one of two colts trained by Todd Pletcher, drew post 17. Pletcher, by the way, is zero for 19 in derbies. Gayego, 15-1, comes out of post 19.

Tale of Ekati, 15-1, who captured the Wood Memorial, will break from post 2, which has the most victories dating back to 1875. But the last winner was ‘78 Triple Crown champ Affirmed.

Cool Coal Man comes out of post 1, which recorded a dozen champs. But the last winner was Winning Colors, who led all the way in ‘88.

The early second and third choices drew favorable posts. Colonel John, 4-1, will break from 10. The last winner was Giacomo in ‘05, the third in 19 years. Pyro, 6-1, drew 9, which last produced the Derby champ in ‘72.

Eight Belles, 15-1, the lone filly, drew 5, which has produced the most winners since ‘88 – four.

Two trainers that saddled Derby champs in the 21st Century hope history repeats numbers-wise. Michael Matz had first pick and selected 8 for Visionaire, 20-1, the same one he chose for Barbaro in ‘06. Next up was Barclay Tagg, who took 7. His Funny Cide scored from that post in ‘03.

Anak Nakal, 30-1, drew 3; Alysheba triumphed in ‘87. Z Fortune, 15-1, breaks from 6, which last produced a winner in ‘93. Court Vision, 20-1, post 4, trying to follow ‘77 Triple Crown champ Seattle Slew.

Other posts: 11, Z Humor, 30-1; 12, Smooth Air, 20-1; 13, Bob Black Jack, 20-1; 14, Monba, 15-1; 15, Adriano, 15-1; and 16, Denis of Cork, 20-1.

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Greg Melikov, a native Chicagoan and retired South Florida newspaperman who resides in Greater San Antonio, has been handicapping and writing about thoroughbreds for decades. His articles and columns appear globally in print and online, including on his own site: www.horsingaround.info. He became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park. He can be contacted at gmelikov@satx.rr.com.

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