My Kentucky Derby Picks: Four Horses in Exotic Bets

By: Greg Melikov

Hours of research on the 134th Kentucky Derby failed to single out a horse that I feel comfortable betting to win. This is the first time in years that I must throw a dart at the bullseye on the wagering board.

However, I have come up with several 3-year-olds I believe have the best chance to hit the board. Here are the thoroughbreds I’ll be using in exactas, trifectas and a Pick 3.

If any contender has a big shot to win it all, it’s Colonel John. The son of Tiznow, who won the first of his two Breeders’ Cup Classics in 2000 at Churchill Downs, captured both preps at 1 1/8 miles. In six career starts, he never was more than three lengths behind in the stretch and won four times and was runner-up twice.

Granted this will be his first start on the dirt, but he took to the main track, firing a bullet 57 4/5 for five furlongs – the best of 62 works on Sunday. The last two winners of the Derby posted bullet works: Street Sense last year and Barbaro in ’06.

I intend to use Court Vision because he stands a good chance of hitting the board if he can stay closer to the pace. The son of Gulch has a solid foundation as a juvenile, winning a pair of stakes, including the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs.

Blinkers were placed on Court Vision April 17 and he responded with a bullet 46 1/5 for four furlongs — the fastest of 25 works. Garrett Gomez stays aboard instead of riding Colonel John, letting Cory Nakatani to keep the mount.

I really liked Gayego coming into this race, but he drew the 19th post with the last pick in the Derby Draw. Consider this: No horse since the first running back in 1875 breaking from that slot has visited the winner’s circle.

But the son of Gilded Time has won on both synthetic and dirt surfaces. When pressed in the stretch while on the lead in the Arkansas Derby, he kicked it in and increased his margin over the closing Z Fortune.

He negotiated five furlongs in the mud at Churchill Downs last Saturday traveling 1:01. Mike Smith, who on longshot champ Giacomo in ’05, has ridden him in all five-career starts during which he triumphed three times and placed twice.

You can’t leave out the likely favorite because the son of Boundary just might not know any bounds. Big Brown has been faster than a UPS truck running an hour behind schedule.

He won from outside 12 post in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, which is no more difficult as the outside 20 post he drew at Churchill Downs. While lacking experience, he has the highest speed figures in both preps this year.

I’m leaving out several horses that performed badly in their final prep. The best closer in the race is Pyro, who won twice coming off the pace this year before failing to run a lick in the Blue Grass on Keeneland’s Polytrack. The main reason: his times in those victories were quite slow.

I’m using all four of my selections in the late Pick 3, which ends with the 10th race, and an extacta or two.

I intend to key Colonel John and Court Vision in a trifecta, using Gayego and Big Brown in the second spot, and all four in the third tier with Smooth Air, runner-up to Big Brown in the Florida Derby, and Z Fortune, second to Gayego at Oaklawn Park.

Good Luck all!

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Greg Melikov, a native Chicagoan and retired South Florida newspaperman who resides in Greater San Antonio, has been handicapping and writing about thoroughbreds for decades. His articles and columns appear globally in print and online, including on his own site: www.horsingaround.info. He became a racing fan at 13 when he saw 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation whip 20 older horses at old Arlington Park. He can be contacted at gmelikov@satx.rr.com.

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