How the Lakers Will Fare in the Western Conference Finals

By: D.K. Wilson

For the Detroit Pistons 1989-1990 capped off consecutive runs that ended in Chuck Daly’s team holding the Larry O’Brien Trophy. For the Chicago Bulls 1989-1990 marked consecutive seasons losing to Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals.

After that season, after losing 4-3 in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Pistons Bulls head coach Phil Jackson’ team understood the leader’s message and understood exactly what was necessary to succeed that they embarked on a road that led them to three O’Briens in a row.

But still, first, they had to lose.

Fast forward to now to the 2007-08 season and there is something very similar yet very different about Jackson’s Los Angeles team. The Lakers are led by the most dynamic basketball player in the league, Kobe Bryant, just as the Bulls were led by the then-incomparable Michael Jordan. The triangle offense is the motor that makes the Lakers go, just as it did Chicago. Today’s Los Angeles team finished the regular season with a 57-25 record while the 1989-90 Bulls finished with a 55-27. The Bulls primary starters’ average age was 27; the team average age was 26.2. Los Angeles’ starters average 28 years of age; the team’s average age is 26.2.

Last season, after showing so much promise the previous year, an injury-debilitated Lakers team played valiantly but lost 4 games to 1 in the first round of the playoffs to a Phoenix squad thought to be the team to beat in the West.

This year’s version of Phil Jackson’s triangle offense, though, is run by a man who won three championship rings right along with Kobe Bryant. Two seasons ago he was with the Golden State Warriors. Last year he was in Utah. Now, Derek Fisher is back in LA. And with Fisher’s return, it is no accident that this is the most proficient of the last three triangle incarnations.

And that brings us to the Lakers chances of advancing beyond the Western Conference Finals against San Antonio beginning tonight.

As we saw with Game 1 of the East Finals, for the Boston Celtics the first game was nothing more that a continuation of what they had been doing for the last three weeks - playing meaningful basketball games. Meantime the Detroit Pistons, with a week off and with Chauncey Billups off even longer due to his pulled hamstring, looked rusty and unsure of themselves. Just two days ago San Antonio won a Game 7 against New Orleans. They were stuck on a tarmac overnight in New Orleans in an airplane - and enjoyed themselves. They invariably made it to LA and will continue in the groove of playing meaningful games tonight. Los Angeles, on the other hand, has been waiting to play a real game since May 16.

LA, like Detroit, must shake off rust. Unlike the Pistons, the Lakers are playing at home and will rely on their crowd to energize them and help them overcome the effects of their layoff.

As for the actual floor play, Los Angeles’ most glaring weaknesses are its inability to corral offensive rebounds and its defensive consistency. Unfortunately for the Lakers, these are two of the Spurs’ strengths. Unless Jackson found something on film for his team to exploit, San Antonio will dominate the glass. And unless the Lakers underwent a concentration transplant, Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich will find ways to take advantage of Los Angeles’ defensive lapses.

Where LA has a decided advantage is with the triangle itself. San Antonio plays great on-ball defense but is susceptible to teams that can move the ball in the half court. The triangle is predicated on passing and movement. Ideally in the triangle offense, no player is to hold the ball for more than two seconds before either passing, shooting, or making a move to the basket with the ball. This flowing style of offense with its reliance on passing for its success gives the Lakers a decided offensive advantage over the Spurs.

There will also be a constant battle to control tempo. Popovich will want the scoring to be in the 80s to low 90s. Jackson will want to see scores in the 100s. In the end, whichever team controls a game’s tempo is one big step closer to winning that game.

Both teams have unstoppable players: Bryant for LA and Tim Duncan for SA. Both teams have nearly unstoppable “X” players: Lamar Odom for the Lakers and Manu Ginobili for the Spurs. Both teams have point guards in Fisher for LA and Tony Parker for SA who run their respective teams expertly - and both can, for stretches, take over games.

Los Angeles has a far deeper team, allowing Jackson to have different combinations at his fingertips with which he can use to exploit various matchup weaknesses. Meantime San Antonio’s reserves are less athletic than LA’s and Popovich uses fewer players in his normal rotation.

This should be a very entertaining series with Hall of Fame matchups on the court - in Bryant and Duncan - and with Jackson and Popovich constantly seeking to out with each other, on the bench. Both teams can win in the opposition’s home arena and both are extremely confident.

In the end, the Spurs’ consistency, especially on the defensive end of the floor, separates them from LA. San Antonio’s ability to pound the offensive glass and get second and third chances at baskets also gives them an edge. Finally, the Spurs have many more players with rings - many more players up and down their lineup who have performed and succeeded under playoff pressure.

And these will be the little things that will allow the Spurs to defeat Los Angeles ———- in seven games.

But, like the Chicago Bulls of 1989-90, this will be the last time for the next three years or more that the Lakers will be on the outside looking in at the Finals. The Spurs had better enjoy this last go-around.

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D.K. Wilson is a freelance sports writer. He is better known on the internet as "DWil," and writes for Sports On My Mind.

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1 Comment

  1. I like the general article, but you’ve missed some key points. Pop used almost all of his bench routinely during the Hornets series, so his bench gets the edge.

    Also, outside of Kobe/Fisher, is there anyone on the Laker’s team that’s been this deep in the playoffs? It’s going to be a similar situation to what we just saw with SA/NO.

    The reason the Spurs will win, is because of their pick and roll execution. They have so many options while running it, and the Lakers openly admit it’s a huge weakness in their defense.

    Expect to see 25-30 pick and roll possessions every game for San Antonio. This may be a much shorter series than people think. I like the Spurs in 6, but it could be Spurs in 5.

    Comment by Mario on May 21, 2008

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