AFL Playoff Preview - Divisional Round

By: Jerome Cusson

It is now time for the divisional round as the big boys come to play. Last week, the home team went 1-3. Can the one and two seeds in each conference prove their dominance or will it be another weekend of upsets.

Saturday, July 5

#5 Colorado Crush (7-10) at #2 San Jose SaberCats (11-5), 3 p.m. ET (ESPN HD, ESPN360.com)

Player to Watch- Colorado: The stat sheet might not show it, but Robert Thomas had a mighty impressive season. In fact, just his mere physical presence may have been the difference in last week’s victory. He was a beast who took multiple Utah Blaze defenders out and caught three passes for 47 yards and touchdown. If San Jose wants to win this game, they will need to stop Thomas. If they do, it could turn into a cake walk.

Player to Watch-San Jose: These are the men who could be assigned the task of keeping Thomas out of the endzone and causing damage. They are also members of the all-Arena team. Mack linebacker Steve Watson and defensive back Marquis Floyd must keep Thomas at bay. With Colorado quarterback John Dutton’s tendency to make mistakes and the Sabercats having one of the better defenses in the league, the Sabercats offense may just have to be concerned with not turning the ball over.

Analysis: The problem with this game is Colorado’s inability to really manufacture the level of scoring needed to keep with San Jose. A banged up receiving core plus the defense of the Sabercats equals a blow-out. The key for San Jose is to not fall into the trap of simply allowing Colorado back into the game as Utah did last week. Thanks to experience and excellent coaching, I see no reason for the home team losing here.

Prediction: San Jose-75 Colorado-45

#6 New York Dragons (9-8) at #1 Philadelphia Soul (13-3), 7 p.m. ET (ESPN HD, ESPN360.com)

Player to Watch- New York: While a lot of credit goes to quarterbacks like Mark Grieb, Matt D’Orazio, and Clint Dolezel, Dragons QB Aaron Garcia has put up a mighty impressive resume in his AFL career. He is among the league leaders in many offensive categories as well as also serving as his own offensive coordinator. This could be one of his last chances to win an Arena Bowl considering his career goes back to 1995. New York’s defense must of course actually stop the high-powered Soul, but Garcia must be ready for an epic shoot-out so this doesn’t turn into the type of game we saw in week 17 when the Dragons were blown out by the Soul 59-30.

Player to Watch- Philadelphia: Could it be anyone but Matt D’Orazio? Yes, it can. Tony Graziani, the all-world Soul quarterback, has spent a lot of his last two seasons on the bench with injuries. Yet, D’Orazio was able to step in and not miss a beat. What’s been the difference? Chris Jackson. With over 1,700 and an AFL leading 49 touchdowns, he was the rock for this offense after departing the Georgia Force. The offensive line and Larry Brackens also add a lot of dimensions, but if Jackson can make the plays he needs to make, this game could also be over early.

Analysis: Your heart has to go out to Aaron Garcia because this is a very solid New York team that squeaked into the playoffs. But I don’t see anyway this team can go on the road and defeat Dallas and Philadelphia back-to-back. I realize what Columbus did last season, but this is a Soul team that’s not ready to lose yet. It’s an organization and owner that wants to finally bring a championship to Philadelphia. Plus, Matt D’Orazio will want some redemption after being left for dead by the Rush. However, if the Dragons can poke holes in the line, both Soul quarterbacks are brittle and injury prone. Still, I can’t pick against the Soul yet.

Prediction: Philadelphia-63 New York-47

 Monday, July 7

#4 Cleveland Gladiators (10-7) at #2 Georgia Force (10-6), 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2 HD, ESPN360.com)

Player to Watch- Cleveland: I like to go with a quarterback or key defensive player in this position because of how much effect they can have on a game. But I can’t sit here and ignore Gladiators’ Robert Redd based off of last week. His 14 catches were almost half of the completions quarterback Raymond Philyaw. He also had 204 yards and four touchdowns against the Orlando Predators. With the Gladiators having an emotionally taxing first playoff game and barely escaping with a win, Redd must continue to be the kind of receiver Philyaw can rely on.

Player to Watch- Georgia: With 97 regular season touchdowns and over 4,000 yards passing, it must be quarterback Chris Greisen parading his team up and down the field. With a defense that ranks toward the bottom in passing, Greisen must minimize mistakes and throw at least six touchdown passes for his team to even have chance at a win.

Analysis: This is the very definition of a trap game for the Force. Considering how unimpressive the Gladiators looked and considering the Force are one of the hottest teams to end the season, you could easily see this turning into another blowout. I think Cleveland has a lot of tools for success with Philyaw, Redd, and their all-Arena fullback Marlion Jackson to pull off the upset. I’m not very confident in Georgia’ defense at this point. This game reeks of an upset.

Prediction: Cleveland-56 Georgia-49

Be sure to check out Jerome’s extended preview of the Chicago Rush vs. Grand Rapids Rampage over at the Chicago Sports Review.

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Jerome Cusson is a proud graduate of Columbia College Chicago. Currently, he is a freelance writer and a contributer to such websites as The Cool Kids' Table and giveawaytheending.com. Check out his NSR blog as well.

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