Year of the Orange: Why this year’s team could be better than Melo’s

By: Nathan Archambault

Syracuse '09-'10

Co-written with Brad Biel

December 9, 2009– Yes, it’s very early in the season. Yes, the Orange have enjoyed their usual fill of early season cupcakes. Yes, there are high hopes for this year’s team. Usually, it’s best to be realistic and not get caught up in the hype. The only problem with that? This year’s team may be even better than the hype. This year’s team may be even better than Melo’s Championship team.

Wins over overrated UNC and Cal on back-to-back nights during the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic added fuel to the fire. But look deeper and there’s something else going on with this team. There’s no doubt about it. This year’s team is… special.

There are certain pieces that a college basketball team needs to succeed. Without the right pieces, there’s no hope. A respected and disciplined coach who can get a bunch of dudes just out of high school to act mature. A big man who can control the paint and slow other big men. A guard who can handle the ball and control the flow of the game. A shooter who can put the ball in the hoop when his team needs a basket. The chemistry to take five talented individuals and create one talented team. We’re only six games into the 2009-10 season, but that doesn’t matter. It’s the pieces of this year’s team that are worth getting excited about. It’s how they work together. And it’s no coincidence: this year’s pieces are eerily similar to the 2003 Championship team. That’s something to get really excited about.

Both teams can easily go 8 men deep. Both have multiple double-digit scorers. Both are very unselfish teams with 6 different players averaging at least an assist a game. Both have enough talent that when one player has an off night, someone else can step in and pick up the slack.

With a similar make-up and chemistry, it’s no surprise that each team put up similar stats. After losing their first game to Memphis, the 2002-03 team won their next 6 games by an average margin of victory of 22 points. This year’s team has won their first 6 by an average of 25 points.

Each team’s per game numbers are almost identical:

2002-2003 season: 80 points/game, 40 reb/game, 15 assists/game, 8.5steals/game, 7 blocks/game

2009-2010 team through 6 games: 89 points/game, 38 reb/game, 20 assists/game, 15 steals/game, 7.8 blocks/game

Both teams are coming off of years where they lost their two leading scorers (’02 Williams-Shumpert/ ’09 Flynn-Devendorf). Some icing on the cake is that Boeheim has brought his team to the finals in 86-87, 95-96 and 02-03. Go ahead, crack open a math book. That’s an average of every 7-8 years. I think you see where this is going. Boeheim has his team right on schedule.

By looking at the raw numbers, it’s easy to see that this year’s Orange are a good team with the potential to be great. But it’s about more than numbers. It’s about having the right pieces. Let’s take a look at the pieces that this year’s team and the ‘03 Championship team have in common.

THE FIRST-YEAR MATCHUP NIGHTMARE (‘02 Carmelo Anthony, ’09 Wesley Johnson)

Both players are the team’s main scoring threat and a matchup nightmare. They hit the three, take defenders off the dribble and are extremely disruptive long-armed forces in the 2-3 zone. Although Johnson is a junior, this is his first year playing for the Orange, just like Anthony was in ’02.

THE WORK-IN-PROGRESS IN THE PAINT (’02 Hakim Warrick, ’09 Rick Jackson)

These two peas in a pod are consistently inconsistent. They may put up 20 points one night and show the talents of a future pro, or they may spend the night clanking bricks and knocking balls out of bounds and think you’re looking at a deer in the headlights who isn’t ready for big east play. Regardless of their offensive performance, both cause major issues in the 2-3 zone with their size and length.

THE MATURE-BEYOND-THEIR-YEARS FRESHMEN GUARD (’02 Gerry McNamara, ’09 Brandon Triche)

Freshmen guard play can almost assure you of a couple losses during the year but these freshmen have a very similar trait. Neither of these players is intimidated by the big stage and they understand how to play under control. We all know the conquests of G-Mac with the 7 three’s in the championship game and single-handedly winning a big east tournament. And Triche is no slouch either. He has shown the willingness to take a big shot mainly by using his 6’4’’ frame to get to the hoop and although he will not hit as many threes as McNamara, he has been more consistent thus far.

THE SEASONED SENIOR LEADER (’02 Kueth Duany, ’09 Andy Rautins)

Two Senior everythings for their respective teams. They play intense defense, can hit the three and want the ball in a big spot. These two players were and are the heart and soul of their teams and how they go the team follows. They create the tempo with their defense and hit the big three when we need it.

THE ALMOST-TOO-WILD WILDCARD (’02 Billy Edelin, ’09 Scoop Jardine)

Rocky times for these players at Cuse are an understatement if there ever was one. Edelin was suspended for 12 games his freshman year because of a ridiculous NCAA ruling while Scoop was suspended multiple games last year for a misunderstanding with a student ID. (There are other tribulations that they have gone through but that’s another article entirely.) They both provide a huge lift by finding the open man and can get to the rim at will. Both also have/had the luxury of playing with a former high school teammate (Edelin and Anthony, Jardine and Jackson).

THE ATHLETIC SECOND YEAR SPARKPLUG (’02 Josh Pace, ‘09 Kris Joseph)

They are currently competing for the two ugliest jump shots in school history (I think Pace will win this one), but they are a huge athletic burst of energy off the bench. These “do-whatever-it-takes” scrappers are players that every team needs to succeed, especially in the deep Big East. You need someone to dive on the floor/block a shot/hit a three/play shut down defense, and these two can do it. While they can’t seem to do any of these things consistently, the great thing about either of them is that they’re able to provide the necessary lift at the necessary time.

THE DEVELOPING BIG MAN (’02 Craig Forth , ’09 Arinze Onuaku)

Two of the most frustrating players in Syracuse history. Forth would regularly miss wide open layups while Onuaku misses wide open free throws. Which is worse? (That’s a rhetorical question.) It’s even more frustrating to think how good these teams would be if either of these players could hit 50% of these shots. Onuaku’s offensive game is much better, but for all of Forth’s faults he provided excellent defense and rebounding that Onuaku lacks.

Here are the straight-up stat comparisons between the 2002-03 team and this year’s team.

NAME

PTS

REB

AST

STL

BLK

3P%

YR

Carmelo Anthony

22.2

10

2.2

1.6

0.9

0.337

freshman

Hakim Warrick

14.8

8.5

1.6

1.4

1.3

0

sophomore

Gerry McNamara

13.3

2.3

4.4

2.2

0.1

0.357

freshman

Kueth Duany

11

3.7

2

1

0.5

0.35

senior

Billy Edelin

9

3.4

2.5

1

0.1

0

freshman

Josh Pace

4.3

2.7

1.9

0.8

0.3

0

sophomore

Craig Forth

3.8

3.3

0.9

0.4

1.2

0

sophomore

Jeremy McNeil

3.3

4.2

0.2

0.3

2.9

0

junior

NAME

PTS

REB

AST

STL

BLK

3P%

YR

Wesley Johnson

16.8

8

2

2.4

2.6

0.45

junior

Rick Jackson

8.4

5.8

2.2

1.4

2.2

0

junior

Brandon Triche

12.2

2.2

2.8

1.2

0

0.385

freshman

Andy Rautins

11.8

3

4.4

3.8

0

0.5

senior

Scoop Jardine

10

1.8

5.2

2.2

0

0.2

sophomore

Kris Joseph

9.8

5.8

2.2

2

0.4

0.3

sophomore

Arinze Onuaku

12.4

3.6

0.8

0.8

0.8

0

senior

Mookie Jones

4.8

1.8

0.5

0.3

0

0.308

freshman

The most amazing part of all this? The 2009-10 squad may be even more talented than the 2002-03 squad. This year’s team is older, bigger, more unselfish, and most importantly, they love to play defense. This may be the most active defense Syracuse has ever had, and it’s going to cause match-up problems for every team they play in at least one position, if not all of them.

After six games, Orange fans have high hopes. This year, they should. Expect the game at Florida to be another big step forward. It’s Syracuse’s toughest game of the year and their last big out of conference game before the Big East schedule kicks in. We know the pieces of this year’s team can do it. Now it’s time to put it all together.

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2 Comments

  1. A few points to pick: As of the 12/9 publication date, the season is 8 games deep, not 6. 02-03 opened w/ a loss to Memphis, not 6 straight wins. AO is a senior, he’s as developed as he’s going to get. Forth was in a state of arrested development (though to be fair, no one knew that at the time) and since when is his 3.3 rebounds providing more than AO’s 3.6 (which is woefully low this season and would be better measured against his 8.1 & 7.3 avgs from the last two seasons)? Finally, you switch from a “based on the first 6 games” argument (the avg margin of victory note) to comparing the first 6 09-10 game stats to full season 02-03.

    Overall, this year’s team being better isn’t a bad point to try to make, but you’re bending facts and numbers too much to fit your argument.

    Comment by Andy on December 11, 2009

  2. a few points to pick on the points you pick: this article was written before the 12/9 pub date, hence the use of 6 games and not 8. the reference to the first 6 games of the 2002-03 refers to the first 6 wins, not all games played. Boeheim himself said today that Onuaku is still developing and will get better as the season goes on. Here’s the link: http://bit.ly/8TcIUH. I switch between 6 game and season comparisons because I’m trying to make the most using a very small sample size of games played. Lastly, you say I’m bending the facts. Damn right I’m bending facts! I love the ‘Cuse. And I don’t think anyone would mistake pace for joseph, duany for rautins or warrick for rick jackson. of course, you never know…

    Comment by Nathan Archambault on December 14, 2009

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