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I found myself talking to a friend today after my German class about baseball. He asked me who I thought would move by the trade deadline. So to satisfy that question, and go into further details, here are the 5 players I think will be traded before the deadline. I’ll start with the player everyone is talking about.

Jack Wilson – What? You were expecting Roy Halladay? I’ll get to him soon. Jack Wilson of the Pirates is the single-most important player in trade talks this year. Forget Halladay and Cliff Lee. They’re both great, but starting pitchers only pitch in 1/5 of their team’s games, while a shortstop like Wilson is critical to the success of any serious contender. Yes, I’m well aware CC Sabathia going to the Brewers last year put them over the edge and into the playoffs. I know Curt Schilling was one of the keys in Boston’s first World Series win in 86 years. The fact remains that without a fast and accurate defensive infield, you’re not going to so much as sniff the World Series.

Enter Jack Wilson. How many times have you seen him on Baseball Tonight with the number 1 web gem? More than you remember. He can make the most impossible of stops and with a high success rate. And he’s not half bad offensively either. Wilson is a solid contact hitter, with a career .269 batting average, he doesn’t strike out hardly at all (only 31 this year), and he doesn’t miss many games, with the exception of last year. Teams really should be looking at him as the missing piece if they consider themselves a contender this year.

After acquiring shortstop prospect Argenis Diaz from the Red Sox in exchange for Adam LaRoche, it opens the door for the Pirates to complete their complete lineup purge (shipping off Jason Bay, LaRoche, and Nate McClouth all within the calendar year) and send off Wilson to a contender for a few prospects.

The smartest place for Wilson is the St Louis Cardinals. Sure, they just acquired Julio Lugo from Boston in exchange for Chris Duncan, but Lugo isn’t the answer. The Cardinals clearly are building a team to make a run this year, acquiring Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday already this season. Ship off Lugo and a few prospects to get Jack Wilson. He could be the final piece for the Cardinals in a division where 4^th place is only 3 games out of first right now. Considering the Cubs just took over the lead in the division, I’d say the Cardinals are on the clock to get that lead back, and Wilson can help them do it.

Roy Halladay – Ok, now it’s time to get serious. If your team is in need of an ace pitcher, it’s likely your GM will not sleep from now until Friday, trying to acquire one of the best pitchers in the majors. Halladay has been lights-out this year, 11-3 with a 2.62 ERA and a .243 opponent batting average. Any given year, this guy can win the Cy Young. He may not be big on strikeouts, only having one season where he recorded more than 200, but he still gets players out, he’s good for 15+ wins year in and year out, and he throws a lot of complete games, meaning you can keep your bullpen fresh for when you really need them.

The Blue Jays have already reportedly turned down a counter-offer from the Phillies to acquire Halladay, so they’re clearly looking for a lot to replace their best player. I think the team with the most to offer, and the team that needs him the most, is the Chicago Cubs. With the seemingly endless acquisition war going on between the Cubs and their hated rival Cardinals, whether or not Halladay is picked up by either team will play a large role in who wins the division. The Jays reportedly want two top-notch pitching prospects and a few position players, and I think the Cubs can do it if they’re willing to take a risk.

The fans have been unhappy with the performances of Carlos Zambrano and Milton Bradley lately, so they need to be included if a deal goes down. Zambrano is an overpowering pitcher, with high strikeout counts and a no-hitter to his record. He’s also good for double-digit wins and has an opponent batting average of .229, a staggeringly low number. Fans also have neglected to notice his ERA this year is about a half run lower this year than either of his past 2 seasons. Zambrano could replace Halladay in the lineup right away. As for Bradley, he’s fast and a solid contact hitter when he’s not stressing out. And since the Jays play in the American League, you can put him at the designated hitter position to keep him from throwing the second out ball into the crowd again. I honestly think if all he has to think about is hitting, he can focus more on that and greatly improve his game.

So who would be the second pitcher in this deal? Jeff Samardzija. He’s young, and while he’s struggling right now, he had filthy stuff last year. In 26 appearances, he had an ERA of 2.28 and an opponent batting average of .226. In other words, calm him down and he could be as dominant as Rivera or Papelbon. More importantly, he could replace BJ Ryan at the closer role after his recent release. Throw in another position player from AA or AAA and Toronto would be foolish to turn it down.

Cliff Lee – Another ace pitcher rumored to be on his way out. Lee was unbelievable last year, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 170 strikeouts on his way to a Cy Young award, as well as Comeback Player of the Year (5-8 and an ERA above 6 the year before). He’s only 7-9 this year, but granted the Indians are pretty bad. His ERA is 3.14 this year, and has been let down by a lack of run support. It’s going to take a great deal for the Tribe to part with their ace (the next in line for that title would be either Fausto Carmona, stuck in minor league purgatory at the moment, or Carl Pavano, who actually is having a pretty good year), so only serious contenders need apply.

Considering the disappointment of John Smoltz this season, the Red Sox need another starter. Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, and Brad Penny have been great, but since Diasuke Matsuzaka is on the DL and not looking like he’s coming back any time soon, Boston could use a fifth dominant starter. Smoltz is the weak link, and you can’t have a weak link pitching every 5 games. If the Red Sox acquire Lee, they could make him a starter, put Smoltz back in the bullpen where he belongs (which would round out their ridiculously deep relief staff alongside Papelbon, Delcarmen, Masterson, Buchholz, and Okajima), and the Red Sox would look pretty close to unbeatable.

So what do the Sox give up for Lee? Enter Theo Epstein, architect of 2 World Series champions and master of the multi-team trade. He used this skill previously to get Jason Bay last year and Orlando Cabrera in 04, whose strong defense at shortstop elevated Boston to the top. I see Boston sending off Chris Duncan, recently acquired from St Louis and immediately optioned to AAA Pawtucket, to the Indians, and another minor leaguer to a third team (who would also send a player to Cleveland) in exchange for Cliff Lee. With a pitching staff that deep, Boston would be nearly impossible to beat down the stretch, which is where they’re usually the strongest anyway. Consider Lee an insurance policy on the way to the division title.

Adrian Gonzales – This one is a little trickier. The Padres are the second worst team in the National League with absolutely no hope of a division title (in a much improved NL West) or a Wild Card spot. This is the time to have a fire-sale like the Marlins have done in the past, and Gonzales is the player to start with. People have made a big deal this year about how great he is, but he wasn’t exactly chopped liver in the past. Since his arrival in San Diego in 2006, Gonzales has not only stayed healthy (playing 150+ games every season), he’s also hit 20+ home runs (including a career-high 36 last year), and has had 170+ hits. So why is he only getting credit this year when he’s been great for the last 3? In fact, this year, his average is a career-low .246, a big step down from last year’s .279 and .304 in 2006.

If there’s one thing the Padres could really use, it’s a good catcher. They have 2 on the DL, and apologies to Nick Hundley and Henry Blanco, but they desperately need improvement. When you think of a team that knows how to develop catchers, one team comes to mind – the Braves. Atlanta has brought up Javy Lopez, Brian McCann, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and they have more great catchers in the minor leagues without question. If the Braves were willing to trade backup catcher David Ross and calling up another catcher from the minors, I could see it as being a player-for-player trade with some cash involved. And a power hitter to replace Francoeur (seriously, who approved that trade?) would certainly put the Braves right back in the mix to win the NL East, or at least claim a Wild Card spot.

Jack Cust – Let’s face it: the Oakland Athletics are in some serious trouble. They’re only percentage points ahead of Cleveland as far as the second worst team in the AL goes. And they really don’t have any reason to be. This group of underachievers includes solid players like Kurt Suzuki, Adam Kennedy, the aforementioned Orlando Cabrera (still playing solid baseball with a .278 batting average), Ryan Sweeney, Nomar Garciaparra, Bobby Crosby, Jason Giambi, and of course, Cust. The reason I think he’ll be the man on his way out is simply because of his power. He has the most home runs on the team (if you can even call the A’s that), and his on base percentage is right where it should be (roughly 80 points higher than his batting average). Cust can draw walks, hit home runs, and he doesn’t have to worry about playing defense. Only American League teams need apply to trade for this DH, and who could use an extra hitter more than the Detroit Tigers.

I wouldn’t exactly say Marcus Thames is the first name that comes to mind when one thinks of a designated hitter. Cust may not hit for average, but his on base percentage makes up for it. In 2007, it was 152 points higher than his career-high .256 batting average.

Think of it this way. You win games by your men getting on base and eventually scoring. Getting a hit isn’t the only way to get on base. If you can draw the walk, it not only gets you on base, it also rattles the pitcher. He gets upset with himself over his delivery not being where he wanted it. In turn, he may start thinking too much and give up a big hit the very next batter. So by being able to draw walks as much as Cust does, he improves the offense by not even having to do anything. If that argument isn’t convincing enough, consider this. Thames’ highest walk total in a single season was 37, and his career total in 482 games since 2002 is 124. Cust has 46 this year alone, and had 111 last year alone. In case you were wondering, Cust has played in 434 games, accumulating 285 walks total.

Has the case for Cust become clearer? He has patience and power, and that may be enough to keep the Tigers in first place, and help them win the AL Central after having finished dead last in 2008.

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