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I found myself talking to a friend today after my German class about baseball. He asked me who I thought would move by the trade deadline. So to satisfy that question, and go into further details, here are the 5 players I think will be traded before the deadline. I’ll start with the player everyone is talking about.

Jack Wilson – What? You were expecting Roy Halladay? I’ll get to him soon. Jack Wilson of the Pirates is the single-most important player in trade talks this year. Forget Halladay and Cliff Lee. They’re both great, but starting pitchers only pitch in 1/5 of their team’s games, while a shortstop like Wilson is critical to the success of any serious contender. Yes, I’m well aware CC Sabathia going to the Brewers last year put them over the edge and into the playoffs. I know Curt Schilling was one of the keys in Boston’s first World Series win in 86 years. The fact remains that without a fast and accurate defensive infield, you’re not going to so much as sniff the World Series.

Enter Jack Wilson. How many times have you seen him on Baseball Tonight with the number 1 web gem? More than you remember. He can make the most impossible of stops and with a high success rate. And he’s not half bad offensively either. Wilson is a solid contact hitter, with a career .269 batting average, he doesn’t strike out hardly at all (only 31 this year), and he doesn’t miss many games, with the exception of last year. Teams really should be looking at him as the missing piece if they consider themselves a contender this year.

After acquiring shortstop prospect Argenis Diaz from the Red Sox in exchange for Adam LaRoche, it opens the door for the Pirates to complete their complete lineup purge (shipping off Jason Bay, LaRoche, and Nate McClouth all within the calendar year) and send off Wilson to a contender for a few prospects.

The smartest place for Wilson is the St Louis Cardinals. Sure, they just acquired Julio Lugo from Boston in exchange for Chris Duncan, but Lugo isn’t the answer. The Cardinals clearly are building a team to make a run this year, acquiring Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday already this season. Ship off Lugo and a few prospects to get Jack Wilson. He could be the final piece for the Cardinals in a division where 4^th place is only 3 games out of first right now. Considering the Cubs just took over the lead in the division, I’d say the Cardinals are on the clock to get that lead back, and Wilson can help them do it.

Roy Halladay – Ok, now it’s time to get serious. If your team is in need of an ace pitcher, it’s likely your GM will not sleep from now until Friday, trying to acquire one of the best pitchers in the majors. Halladay has been lights-out this year, 11-3 with a 2.62 ERA and a .243 opponent batting average. Any given year, this guy can win the Cy Young. He may not be big on strikeouts, only having one season where he recorded more than 200, but he still gets players out, he’s good for 15+ wins year in and year out, and he throws a lot of complete games, meaning you can keep your bullpen fresh for when you really need them.

The Blue Jays have already reportedly turned down a counter-offer from the Phillies to acquire Halladay, so they’re clearly looking for a lot to replace their best player. I think the team with the most to offer, and the team that needs him the most, is the Chicago Cubs. With the seemingly endless acquisition war going on between the Cubs and their hated rival Cardinals, whether or not Halladay is picked up by either team will play a large role in who wins the division. The Jays reportedly want two top-notch pitching prospects and a few position players, and I think the Cubs can do it if they’re willing to take a risk.

The fans have been unhappy with the performances of Carlos Zambrano and Milton Bradley lately, so they need to be included if a deal goes down. Zambrano is an overpowering pitcher, with high strikeout counts and a no-hitter to his record. He’s also good for double-digit wins and has an opponent batting average of .229, a staggeringly low number. Fans also have neglected to notice his ERA this year is about a half run lower this year than either of his past 2 seasons. Zambrano could replace Halladay in the lineup right away. As for Bradley, he’s fast and a solid contact hitter when he’s not stressing out. And since the Jays play in the American League, you can put him at the designated hitter position to keep him from throwing the second out ball into the crowd again. I honestly think if all he has to think about is hitting, he can focus more on that and greatly improve his game.

So who would be the second pitcher in this deal? Jeff Samardzija. He’s young, and while he’s struggling right now, he had filthy stuff last year. In 26 appearances, he had an ERA of 2.28 and an opponent batting average of .226. In other words, calm him down and he could be as dominant as Rivera or Papelbon. More importantly, he could replace BJ Ryan at the closer role after his recent release. Throw in another position player from AA or AAA and Toronto would be foolish to turn it down.

Cliff Lee – Another ace pitcher rumored to be on his way out. Lee was unbelievable last year, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 170 strikeouts on his way to a Cy Young award, as well as Comeback Player of the Year (5-8 and an ERA above 6 the year before). He’s only 7-9 this year, but granted the Indians are pretty bad. His ERA is 3.14 this year, and has been let down by a lack of run support. It’s going to take a great deal for the Tribe to part with their ace (the next in line for that title would be either Fausto Carmona, stuck in minor league purgatory at the moment, or Carl Pavano, who actually is having a pretty good year), so only serious contenders need apply.

Considering the disappointment of John Smoltz this season, the Red Sox need another starter. Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, and Brad Penny have been great, but since Diasuke Matsuzaka is on the DL and not looking like he’s coming back any time soon, Boston could use a fifth dominant starter. Smoltz is the weak link, and you can’t have a weak link pitching every 5 games. If the Red Sox acquire Lee, they could make him a starter, put Smoltz back in the bullpen where he belongs (which would round out their ridiculously deep relief staff alongside Papelbon, Delcarmen, Masterson, Buchholz, and Okajima), and the Red Sox would look pretty close to unbeatable.

So what do the Sox give up for Lee? Enter Theo Epstein, architect of 2 World Series champions and master of the multi-team trade. He used this skill previously to get Jason Bay last year and Orlando Cabrera in 04, whose strong defense at shortstop elevated Boston to the top. I see Boston sending off Chris Duncan, recently acquired from St Louis and immediately optioned to AAA Pawtucket, to the Indians, and another minor leaguer to a third team (who would also send a player to Cleveland) in exchange for Cliff Lee. With a pitching staff that deep, Boston would be nearly impossible to beat down the stretch, which is where they’re usually the strongest anyway. Consider Lee an insurance policy on the way to the division title.

Adrian Gonzales – This one is a little trickier. The Padres are the second worst team in the National League with absolutely no hope of a division title (in a much improved NL West) or a Wild Card spot. This is the time to have a fire-sale like the Marlins have done in the past, and Gonzales is the player to start with. People have made a big deal this year about how great he is, but he wasn’t exactly chopped liver in the past. Since his arrival in San Diego in 2006, Gonzales has not only stayed healthy (playing 150+ games every season), he’s also hit 20+ home runs (including a career-high 36 last year), and has had 170+ hits. So why is he only getting credit this year when he’s been great for the last 3? In fact, this year, his average is a career-low .246, a big step down from last year’s .279 and .304 in 2006.

If there’s one thing the Padres could really use, it’s a good catcher. They have 2 on the DL, and apologies to Nick Hundley and Henry Blanco, but they desperately need improvement. When you think of a team that knows how to develop catchers, one team comes to mind – the Braves. Atlanta has brought up Javy Lopez, Brian McCann, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and they have more great catchers in the minor leagues without question. If the Braves were willing to trade backup catcher David Ross and calling up another catcher from the minors, I could see it as being a player-for-player trade with some cash involved. And a power hitter to replace Francoeur (seriously, who approved that trade?) would certainly put the Braves right back in the mix to win the NL East, or at least claim a Wild Card spot.

Jack Cust – Let’s face it: the Oakland Athletics are in some serious trouble. They’re only percentage points ahead of Cleveland as far as the second worst team in the AL goes. And they really don’t have any reason to be. This group of underachievers includes solid players like Kurt Suzuki, Adam Kennedy, the aforementioned Orlando Cabrera (still playing solid baseball with a .278 batting average), Ryan Sweeney, Nomar Garciaparra, Bobby Crosby, Jason Giambi, and of course, Cust. The reason I think he’ll be the man on his way out is simply because of his power. He has the most home runs on the team (if you can even call the A’s that), and his on base percentage is right where it should be (roughly 80 points higher than his batting average). Cust can draw walks, hit home runs, and he doesn’t have to worry about playing defense. Only American League teams need apply to trade for this DH, and who could use an extra hitter more than the Detroit Tigers.

I wouldn’t exactly say Marcus Thames is the first name that comes to mind when one thinks of a designated hitter. Cust may not hit for average, but his on base percentage makes up for it. In 2007, it was 152 points higher than his career-high .256 batting average.

Think of it this way. You win games by your men getting on base and eventually scoring. Getting a hit isn’t the only way to get on base. If you can draw the walk, it not only gets you on base, it also rattles the pitcher. He gets upset with himself over his delivery not being where he wanted it. In turn, he may start thinking too much and give up a big hit the very next batter. So by being able to draw walks as much as Cust does, he improves the offense by not even having to do anything. If that argument isn’t convincing enough, consider this. Thames’ highest walk total in a single season was 37, and his career total in 482 games since 2002 is 124. Cust has 46 this year alone, and had 111 last year alone. In case you were wondering, Cust has played in 434 games, accumulating 285 walks total.

Has the case for Cust become clearer? He has patience and power, and that may be enough to keep the Tigers in first place, and help them win the AL Central after having finished dead last in 2008.

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The time has come – we’ve reached the midway point of the 2009 MLB season. It’s been an eventful year in more ways than one. From the tragic death of rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart of the Angels early in the season to the resurgence of David Ortiz after one of the worst slumps of his career, there’s a lot to talk about. Winners, losers, surprises, disappointments: let’s talk about the first half of this season.

I’m starting in the National League, and at a logical point: the first-half MVP. Without question, it’s Albert Pujols. He’s always an offensive juggernaut, but this year may see the first Triple Crown winner in the majors since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, and the first in the National League since fellow Cardinal Joe Medwick in 1937. It’s interesting to note Medwick hit 31 home runs that season – Pujols already has 32. He’s leading the NL in home runs and RBIs, and only trails the leader in batting average by 7 points. If anyone can do it, it’s Pujols. Without his offensive dominance, the Cardinals wouldn’t be in first place.

My Cy Young pick for the first half of the season is Tim Lincecum. He won it last year in his breakout second season, and he’s not letting up any this year either. His ERA is a staggeringly low 2.33 (only trailing Dan Haren with 2.01, but considering the state of the Diamondbacks, it’s only a matter of time before that number rises), he has 10 wins (only trailing Jason Marquis with 11), and he leads both leagues with 149 strikeouts. He’s young and overpowering, not to mention the favorite to repeat if he keeps up this pace.

The biggest surprise in the NL this season has been the San Francisco Giants. A miserable 72-90 last year (4^th in a weak NL West), they’re turning it around this year, posting a 49-38 record so far this year behind power pitching from Lincecum, Matt Cain, an unlikely no hitter by Jonathan Sanchez, and a 300 game winner in Randy Johnson (something analysts said was impossible after Greg Maddux achieved that milestone). Also receiving credit is Pablo Sandoval, a likely candidate for NL Rookie of the Year, and Aaron Rowand one of the best defensive outfielders in the game.

The Cubs and Mets have been equally disappointing, and neither of them really have a good excuse. The Mets paid top-dollar to acquire ace closer Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez, who set the single season record for saves last year with 62, and they’re currently only above the Washington Nationals in a very winnable NL East. Only 6.5 games separate first place from fourth, so it’s still (almost) anyone’s division. Acquiring Jeff Francoeur a few days ago is already paying dividends – he went 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs in his Mets debut, while the man he replaced, Ryan Church, went hitless in his Braves debut.

I have a bigger problem with the Cubs. They won the NL Central by 7.5 games last year, posting 97 wins, and this year they’re only hanging on to a .500 record entering today, still good enough for third place. Milton Bradley is not panning out, and letting Kerry Wood go after he finally found his niche as a closer didn’t make much sense either. To be fair, the Cubs are banged up at the moment, with Ryan Dempster, Derrek Lee, and Geovany Soto all on the DL at the moment. Even so, it doesn’t make up for falling off that much with basically the same team as last year.

Now let’s move on to the American League, where the MVP race is a lot tighter. For right now, I’m giving the nod to Jason Bay in spite of a recent slump. He has 20 home runs (4 behind Carlos Pena, the AL leader) and 72 RBIs, which is best in the AL. He’s been making great plays in left field and consistently delivering clutch hits, prompting Red Sox fans to forget all about #24. He desperately needs to get his average up to win the award: the lowest batting average of an MVP was .267 by Marty Marion for the St Louis Cardinals in 1944.

Even closer than my selection for first-half MVP is the AL first-half Cy Young winner. Tim Wakefield has the most wins (11), Justin Verlander has the most strikeouts (141), and Zack Greinke has the lowest ERA (2.12). But comparing them against each other, I have to go with Greinke. He has a lower ERA, more complete games and shutouts, allowed fewer home runs and walks, he’s caught more baserunners stealing than bases they’ve stolen, has a lower WHIP and opponent batting average, and has more strikeouts per walk and fewer walks per 9 innings than Wakefield and Verlander. He also has 10 of Kansas City’s 37 wins. Think about that – if they didn’t have Greinke, they’d be only a half game better than the Nationals.

As much as I like the fighting spirit of the Texas Rangers or the comeback year by Carl Pavano (he’s won 8 games this year after winning 9 his last 4 years in New York), there’s no bigger surprise in the American League than the Detroit Tigers. Last year, they won only 74 games; only the Orioles and Mariners won fewer than that. This year, they lead the division by 2.5 games over last year’s division champion White Sox. Brandon Inge and Justin Verlander have been unstoppable, and even with injuries to Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Guillen, and Nate Robertson, they’re still managing to win games through great starting pitching and solid defense.

As with the National League, two teams really have been disappointments: the Minnesota Twins and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Twins lost the division by one game last year, and in spite of the ridiculous season Joe Mauer is having (with a .381 batting average), they can’t seem to pull themselves out of mediocrity. They’re .500 on the season and 5-5 in their last 10 games. It’s not exactly a recipe for success. I know the Angels lost their closer and have been plagued with injuries to Vlad Guerrero and other players, but they were the only 100 win team in the majors last year, and to only be leading the division by half a game over Texas really is unacceptable, especially considering injuries to the Rangers star player Josh Hamilton. I don’t see the Angels being able to hold on: either the Rangers or also surprising Mariners will win the division.

To close everything out, I’ve got two bold predictions and my division winners. First, after having a superstar like Manny Ramirez test positive for a banned substance and get hit with a 50 game suspension reminds me that this is not yet a steroid-free league. I expect another major star will be suspended this season, and I think it will be another Hispanic player as well. Such substances are readily available in the Caribbean, and with many players participating in Winter leagues, it’s obvious there are players still breaking the rules and expecting to get away with it. Another superstar will test positive this season, and they still won’t learn.

I also think the Cubs will take place in a blockbuster trade before the deadline passes. It could happen with any team in a tight division race, but I think it’s going to be the Cubs. Fans have recently been unhappy with the performance of Carlos Zambrano, and I could see him being packaged with some prospects if the Cubs want to make a run at acquiring Roy Halladay. As we’ve seen in the past, getting a starting pitcher can be the difference in a team’s playoff chances. The prime example is CC Sabathia, traded last year to the Brewers, who in turn won the NL Wild Card. Don’t forget Ben Sheets is still a free agent: the Cubs could involve him in a sign-and-trade with Zambrano to sweeten the deal for Toronto.

Lastly, my division winners. Starting in the NL, I’m predicting the Phillies to repeat in the East, the Brewers to surprise the Cardinals in the Central, and the Dodgers to drop the West to the up and coming Giants. I think the Cardinals are still a good enough team to take the Wild Card, driven by Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and Ryan Franklin. In the AL, I think the Red Sox will hold on in the East, the Tigers to win the Central and complete their worst to first season, and the Texas Rangers to win the West. In a bit of cruel irony, the Yankees will miss the playoffs for a second year in a row, showing them it takes more than just throwing big contracts at free agents to make a winning team. I think the Rays are getting their act together enough to pull out the Wild Card, narrowly defeating the Mariners.

If you’ve stuck with it this far, thanks for reading. I’d love to hear your opinions on anything I covered (your picks for MVP and Cy Young, division winners, etc).

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It’s been a busy week for Major League Baseball, and a busy week for myself as well. I haven’t been able to blog as much since classes started back up, so to make up for it, here are my thoughts on a few of baseball’s top stories.

First of all, the last men voted in to the All-Star game – the fans got it right for once. Shane “The Flyin’ Hawiian” Victorino and Brandon Inge were voted in by the fans to claim the final spots in the NL and AL All-Star teams, respectively. They couldn’t have been more right. Victorino is hitting an impressive .314, and he leads the Phillies in runs scored, hits, doubles, triples, and stolen bases. He’s the glue holding them together offensively. Victorino has also committed just one error in 82 games played, and leads his team in innings fielded with 735.1. Currently, the Phillies lead the NL East by 3 games over the Marlins. Inge leads the Tigers with 19 home runs and 54 RBIs. Not only that, his spectacular plays in the field (frequently seen on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight) are helping his Tigers stay atop the AL Central, holding a 3.5 game lead over the White Sox. All things considered, these guys should have been voted All-Stars in the first place, and with this second chance system, the fans got it right. Well done.

Moving right along, the Mets sent Ryan Church to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur. I have to say I’m highly disappointed in the Braves for this move. He may not be hitting very well this year, but Francoeur is not only a spectacular fielder (a career .982 fielding percentage, including a perfect 1.000 this year) and has one of the strongest arms I’ve ever seen, but he’s one of the leaders on this team. Aside from Chipper Jones and Brian McCann, he’s who you think of when you think of Atlanta today. He also stays healthy, which is more than I can say for his replacement, Ryan Church. Church only played 90 games last year, while Francoeur played 155. That’s a pretty big difference. Church may have a higher batting average this year, but has fewer hits, runs, home runs, and RBIs. Also, he’s six years older than Francoeur. You expect to get better by getting older and trading for a guy with only one year more major league experience than the guy you just shipped off? I just can’t wrap my head around this one. I take back part of what I said last week about the Mets – they robbed Atlanta blind on this move. I can understand if Atlanta had received a draft pick or a minor league prospect or two, but as a straight up man-for-man trade, I just don’t get it.

Last night, Jonathan Sanchez became the most unlikely pitcher in the Giants rotation to throw a no-hitter, the franchise’s first in 33 years. I would easily have expected Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, or Randy Johnson to do it. Maybe even Barry Zito, even though he hasn’t been that good since signing with the Giants. I’m not here to sell Sanchez short. What he did was incredible, but he owes a lot to that brilliant catch made by Aaron Rowand, as he robbed what was nearly a home run. It may be what he needs to turn his season, possibly even his career, around. He’s only 3-8 this year and 16-26 career, but throwing a no-hitter gives a pitcher a boost of confidence like nothing else can. I’m happy for him, and here’s to hoping he only gets better.

The Angels have taken a rather large hit, losing both Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter to the disabled list. Vlad the Impaler has been banged up all year, and has played in just over half of his team’s games. The loss of his big bat seriously damages their ability to hit the long ball. Speaking of home runs, guess who’s leading the team in that statistic so far? That’s right, Torii Hunter. He’s hit 17 this year, along with a team-best 65 RBIs and 159 total bases. Both hitters are batting near .300 (Vlad slightly below, Torii slightly above), so these are devastating losses. The Angels are only a half game behind the surprising Rangers, and the remaining players (in particular Figgins, Morales, Abreu, and Rivera) need to pick up the pace if they don’t want to fall too far behind. It’s only the 15 day DL, but factor in rehab starts and it may be early August before these guys return.

Lastly, it just wouldn’t be an article about baseball without mentioning Manny Ramirez. Are the fans honestly going to forget he just did 50 games for juicing and accept him with open arms yet again? I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. He does play for the Dodgers, and that Hollywood lifestyle produces enough phonies and frauds to begin with. He’s still the same old selfish, lazy fielding clean-up hitter the Red Sox got sick of and dealt for Jason Bay (who could easily become the new captain of the Red Sox once Varitek retires – but that’s another article for another time) and I don’t see him ever changing. He runs his mouth, he doesn’t put his full effort into the game (shown clearly by his choice to take steroids instead of working hard alongside his teammates), and to be perfectly honest, Juan Pierre was playing better while he was gone. The Dodgers were in first place when he was suspended, and they didn’t miss a step once they lost him. Pierre is faster, a better fielder, and while he may not hit as hard, puts so much more effort into his job it’s insulting to start an egomaniac like Manny over such a hard worker like Pierre. I don’t blame Joe Torre. He’s only the manager, and he has to do what’s best for ticket sales – win. If you’re going to play this overpaid loudmouth, rotate Pierre in and out of the whole outfield when other guys need to take days off. Don’t punish the guy for working hard: reward it. Show your team hard work pays off and you’ll yield results like your early days as Yankees manager.

So those are my thoughts about baseball for now. In a few days, I’ll post my second-half predictions. Stay tuned.

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