benaikey

The time has come – we’ve reached the midway point of the 2009 MLB season. It’s been an eventful year in more ways than one. From the tragic death of rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart of the Angels early in the season to the resurgence of David Ortiz after one of the worst slumps of his career, there’s a lot to talk about. Winners, losers, surprises, disappointments: let’s talk about the first half of this season.

I’m starting in the National League, and at a logical point: the first-half MVP. Without question, it’s Albert Pujols. He’s always an offensive juggernaut, but this year may see the first Triple Crown winner in the majors since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, and the first in the National League since fellow Cardinal Joe Medwick in 1937. It’s interesting to note Medwick hit 31 home runs that season – Pujols already has 32. He’s leading the NL in home runs and RBIs, and only trails the leader in batting average by 7 points. If anyone can do it, it’s Pujols. Without his offensive dominance, the Cardinals wouldn’t be in first place.

My Cy Young pick for the first half of the season is Tim Lincecum. He won it last year in his breakout second season, and he’s not letting up any this year either. His ERA is a staggeringly low 2.33 (only trailing Dan Haren with 2.01, but considering the state of the Diamondbacks, it’s only a matter of time before that number rises), he has 10 wins (only trailing Jason Marquis with 11), and he leads both leagues with 149 strikeouts. He’s young and overpowering, not to mention the favorite to repeat if he keeps up this pace.

The biggest surprise in the NL this season has been the San Francisco Giants. A miserable 72-90 last year (4^th in a weak NL West), they’re turning it around this year, posting a 49-38 record so far this year behind power pitching from Lincecum, Matt Cain, an unlikely no hitter by Jonathan Sanchez, and a 300 game winner in Randy Johnson (something analysts said was impossible after Greg Maddux achieved that milestone). Also receiving credit is Pablo Sandoval, a likely candidate for NL Rookie of the Year, and Aaron Rowand one of the best defensive outfielders in the game.

The Cubs and Mets have been equally disappointing, and neither of them really have a good excuse. The Mets paid top-dollar to acquire ace closer Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez, who set the single season record for saves last year with 62, and they’re currently only above the Washington Nationals in a very winnable NL East. Only 6.5 games separate first place from fourth, so it’s still (almost) anyone’s division. Acquiring Jeff Francoeur a few days ago is already paying dividends – he went 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs in his Mets debut, while the man he replaced, Ryan Church, went hitless in his Braves debut.

I have a bigger problem with the Cubs. They won the NL Central by 7.5 games last year, posting 97 wins, and this year they’re only hanging on to a .500 record entering today, still good enough for third place. Milton Bradley is not panning out, and letting Kerry Wood go after he finally found his niche as a closer didn’t make much sense either. To be fair, the Cubs are banged up at the moment, with Ryan Dempster, Derrek Lee, and Geovany Soto all on the DL at the moment. Even so, it doesn’t make up for falling off that much with basically the same team as last year.

Now let’s move on to the American League, where the MVP race is a lot tighter. For right now, I’m giving the nod to Jason Bay in spite of a recent slump. He has 20 home runs (4 behind Carlos Pena, the AL leader) and 72 RBIs, which is best in the AL. He’s been making great plays in left field and consistently delivering clutch hits, prompting Red Sox fans to forget all about #24. He desperately needs to get his average up to win the award: the lowest batting average of an MVP was .267 by Marty Marion for the St Louis Cardinals in 1944.

Even closer than my selection for first-half MVP is the AL first-half Cy Young winner. Tim Wakefield has the most wins (11), Justin Verlander has the most strikeouts (141), and Zack Greinke has the lowest ERA (2.12). But comparing them against each other, I have to go with Greinke. He has a lower ERA, more complete games and shutouts, allowed fewer home runs and walks, he’s caught more baserunners stealing than bases they’ve stolen, has a lower WHIP and opponent batting average, and has more strikeouts per walk and fewer walks per 9 innings than Wakefield and Verlander. He also has 10 of Kansas City’s 37 wins. Think about that – if they didn’t have Greinke, they’d be only a half game better than the Nationals.

As much as I like the fighting spirit of the Texas Rangers or the comeback year by Carl Pavano (he’s won 8 games this year after winning 9 his last 4 years in New York), there’s no bigger surprise in the American League than the Detroit Tigers. Last year, they won only 74 games; only the Orioles and Mariners won fewer than that. This year, they lead the division by 2.5 games over last year’s division champion White Sox. Brandon Inge and Justin Verlander have been unstoppable, and even with injuries to Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Guillen, and Nate Robertson, they’re still managing to win games through great starting pitching and solid defense.

As with the National League, two teams really have been disappointments: the Minnesota Twins and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Twins lost the division by one game last year, and in spite of the ridiculous season Joe Mauer is having (with a .381 batting average), they can’t seem to pull themselves out of mediocrity. They’re .500 on the season and 5-5 in their last 10 games. It’s not exactly a recipe for success. I know the Angels lost their closer and have been plagued with injuries to Vlad Guerrero and other players, but they were the only 100 win team in the majors last year, and to only be leading the division by half a game over Texas really is unacceptable, especially considering injuries to the Rangers star player Josh Hamilton. I don’t see the Angels being able to hold on: either the Rangers or also surprising Mariners will win the division.

To close everything out, I’ve got two bold predictions and my division winners. First, after having a superstar like Manny Ramirez test positive for a banned substance and get hit with a 50 game suspension reminds me that this is not yet a steroid-free league. I expect another major star will be suspended this season, and I think it will be another Hispanic player as well. Such substances are readily available in the Caribbean, and with many players participating in Winter leagues, it’s obvious there are players still breaking the rules and expecting to get away with it. Another superstar will test positive this season, and they still won’t learn.

I also think the Cubs will take place in a blockbuster trade before the deadline passes. It could happen with any team in a tight division race, but I think it’s going to be the Cubs. Fans have recently been unhappy with the performance of Carlos Zambrano, and I could see him being packaged with some prospects if the Cubs want to make a run at acquiring Roy Halladay. As we’ve seen in the past, getting a starting pitcher can be the difference in a team’s playoff chances. The prime example is CC Sabathia, traded last year to the Brewers, who in turn won the NL Wild Card. Don’t forget Ben Sheets is still a free agent: the Cubs could involve him in a sign-and-trade with Zambrano to sweeten the deal for Toronto.

Lastly, my division winners. Starting in the NL, I’m predicting the Phillies to repeat in the East, the Brewers to surprise the Cardinals in the Central, and the Dodgers to drop the West to the up and coming Giants. I think the Cardinals are still a good enough team to take the Wild Card, driven by Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and Ryan Franklin. In the AL, I think the Red Sox will hold on in the East, the Tigers to win the Central and complete their worst to first season, and the Texas Rangers to win the West. In a bit of cruel irony, the Yankees will miss the playoffs for a second year in a row, showing them it takes more than just throwing big contracts at free agents to make a winning team. I think the Rays are getting their act together enough to pull out the Wild Card, narrowly defeating the Mariners.

If you’ve stuck with it this far, thanks for reading. I’d love to hear your opinions on anything I covered (your picks for MVP and Cy Young, division winners, etc).

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