Fantasy Thoughts after the OTAs

By: justinsemerad

Perpare to light it up soon Ricky.

Now that the OTAs are beginning to wrap up I decided to check the temperature of the fantasy world and see where we are at. Before I start I want to say that I don’t take a lot of stock in what GMs and head coaches have to say during the OTAs but rather what is actually seen on the practice field by on the field reporters. For instance talk early was that the Miami backfield was going to be a split between Brown and Williams. However everything I have read in recent weeks is that Ronnie Brown looks great and Ricky’s dream of retiring on a tropical beach with his favorite flavor of herb is going to happen sooner rather than latter.

What I like to do is look at whose values have taken a hit over the past month and whose value is on the rise. This is much too early for me to go real in depth about my drafting style but in short I like to break my positions into tiers and then relate that to each players Average Draft Position (ADP). When looking at ADP I use  a site by the name of  Fantasy Football Calculator.  Their ADPs are very current not an average of the past few months but rather the past week. So here are my thoughts.

 

 

#1  NoBrianers

There is no doubt that AP is the best RB in this years draft. Therefore should be the first guy to go. If I get stuck with the #1 pick this is the only guy I will consider. In years past there were at least 3 or 4 guys that you could make a case for, not so this year. What the running back position does have this year is depth. AP is the only top tier guy, but 10-14 guys that fall into the next tier. Which brings me to my next thought.

Winds of Change

 I have always been a  big proponent of taking running backs early and often in my drafts. However if I am sitting in a late 1st round position this may be the year to take at least 1 non running back in the first 2 rounds and possibly taking two non running backs. If I am sitting at number 10 and both Fitzgerald andMoss are sitting there I would very tempted to take both of those guys. Projecting to the third/fourth round I would have the following options out there at running back (ADP in a 10 team Draft):

Ronnie Brown (3.09)

Ryan Grant (4.03)

Kevin Smith (4.05)

Marshawn Lynch (5.01)

Knowshon Moreno (5.05)

Darren McFadden (6.02)

Not an overwhelming group but if you have two WR getting 20 points game they don’t have to be.

Best Values 

Just a quick list of the best values at each position according to their ADP.

Running Backs: Marion Barber (3.o4), Ronnie Brown (3.09), Knowshon Moreno (5.05), Lynch (5.01), McFadden (9.07)-no way he stays this low on draft day.

Wide Receivers: Owens (4.01), Houshmandzadeh (4.04), DeSean Jackson (6.06), and Torry Holt (9.01)

Quarterbacks: Tom Brady (2.10)-by the time most of us start drafting his ADP will move up to the 1st round, McNabb (6.10) and Hasselbeck (11.01).

Tight End: Kellen Winslow (7.10) The Bucs didn’t sign him to block, his numbers will be comparable to any of the top 3 TE.

A Final Word Thought

The Colts have had a lot of turnover on their coaching staff with a new head coach, offensive and defensive coordinators, and offensive line coach. There were already signs last year of a drop when the colts fell to 15th in the league in total offensive after being 5th in 2007. It is currently being reflected in mock drafts as Reggie Wayne is the only offensive starter really holding his value. Sports illustrated did hit on this recently and discussed that the Colts knew this day was coming and had planned for it. Once camp starts the three things I will be watching for in Indy will be…

The Colts need Saturday on Sunday.

 

1. Is the Offensive system being tweaked at all. According to SI, very little will change.

2. Does Joseph Addia regain form or does Donald Brown and Mike Hart start to steal touches. His current ADP is 5.10 and currently the 22nd rb taken off the boards. He is either a tremendous value or a suckers pick. #3 will go a long ways into answering this.

3. Is the O-line healthy and most importantly is Jeff Saturday healthy. Reports indicate that everyone is minded up and ready to go .

 

 

I will be back soon with more of my observations in the world of fantasy football.

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Justin Semerad is a sad little man who uses fantasy football to find some relevance in his life. Consequently has found some success and hope to spread his knowledge with fellow FFB'ers.

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