With the Broncos’ Quarterback situation in flex because of injuries to Orton and Simms and plan lousy play, Kevin  O’Connell may actually have some value for the Broncos. Currently the Broncos are looking for a package of a high draft pick and players for Marshall.

For what it’s worth Peter King doesn’t see it that way and the Denver Post is reporting that the Broncos have no interest in trading Marshall at this time.

If they can flip O’Connell for Marshall and draft picks one has to like the combo of Marshall and Jerricho Cotchery as the wide outs for the Jets. Stay Tuned.

By the way there is nothing better than a live draft. Online most guys just stick with the preset player rankings and outlandish picks are few and far between. However at a live draft guys are much more likely to make picks that seem to come out of no where. Although in reality there is a very good reason for their picks: The name game.

When guys are in a room full of buddies that last thing they want to do is pick someone that makes them the butt of jokes. So when we get into the mid to late rounds they chose a name they recognize rather than someone of true value.

Case in point: Team DG. His first 4 picks were Chris Johnson, Brees, Roddy White and Ryan Grant. Not a bad core to start with. But his picks 5-7 were as followed: Ocho, Reggie Bush and Palmer. Draft ruined. Now maybe Ocho bounces back but that is a big maybe. Bush is his #3 back Ouch! Palmer will only be playable duirng Brees’s bye week. I have no problem drafting Palmer as a number 2 but not as your 6th pick of the draft. He could have had TJ Houch. and Gates or Lynch and Welker. Guys with a lot more upside. Compare the two lineups after 7 rounds

Team 1                                      Team 2

QB Brees                                   Brees

RB C.Johnson                           C. Johnson

RB Grant                                   Grant

RB/WR Reggie Bush              Joseph Addai

WR Roddy White                    Roddy White

WR OchoCinco                        Steve Smith

Instead of Palmer he could have had Benson, Derrick Ward, Owen Dainiels, or handcuffed Johnson with White.

DG is a great guy but his knowledge of the NFL player is only name deep. Which is why he tends to finish last in the league.

Player to Watch

James Davis-The rookie as been impressive in camp so far and is getting lots of buzz as a late round sleeper. Michael Lombardi has stated that he thinks Jamal Lewis will be cut at some point which would defentilty make Davis worth a roster spot. He went in round 7 in my live draft, which is way too early. Although he is currently #2 on the depth charts in Cleveland, Jerome Harrison has missed most of training camp with a knee injury. Harrison is back and if he can bounce back the #2 gig maybe his again.

Chris Henry-The often troubled wideout in Cincinnati has been very good thus far in camp. Don’t forget he once hauled in 9 TDs. If he has turned things around he is worth a late round flier. In an offensive that will need to score a lot of points to win.

Michael Bush-I’m sure most of you remember Larry Johnson’s crazy 2005 campaign when he filled in for an injured Priest Holmes and scored 20 TDs. Do I think Bush is in for that kind of season. Hell no, but do I think this guy could be a top 20 back when starting? Absolutely.The last two season Oakland has been a top 10 rushing team in terms of yards per carry. I think McFadden will always be injury proned and Fargas as well. I think by years end he is leading the Raider in touches, yards and rushing TDs.

Check me out on Fantasy Insights as the I am the contributor for the Rams this season.

I think Favre is a top 15-20 QB this year. He has lack luster wide outs and this team will be predicated on a clock controlling ground game. With that said he improves the values of Berrian, Peterson and Visanthe Shianoe. Favre at least gives the passing game some respectability and won’t allow teams to pack the box. Matthew Berry had an interesting point about Favre on yesterdays BS report with Bill Simmons. He felt that the biggest value to AD was the fact that the Vikings would convert more 3rd down attempts, which would in turn give Peterson more touches. Shianoe value does spike because Favre has always been good to his TEs.

Great article on the Football Outsiders website today covering some NFL injuries and their fantasy impact. Most notable to me were the Jonathan Stewart and Knowshon Moreno injuries. They are very concerned about Stewart’s long term health this season. I am giving D-Williams a big upgrade and keep an eye Mike Goodson. He is more of a Williams type than Stewart, but if Stewart does go down this year Goodson could be worth a pickup as a free agent.

The boys at FO are less worried about Moreno, but if he does miss significant time they think Lamont Jordan will pick up the slack.

CBS Sportsline has reported that Peyton Hillis maybe the opening day starter for the Broncos.

The Perspective

It is easy to forget how good he was before a season ending injury. He averaged 5 yard per carry and was a very good receiver out of the backfield and can play FB and TE. The former regime loved him, as do the new guys. If Moreno can’t stay healthy Hillis may become the starter.

The News

Also from CBS Pierre Thomas has been impressive in camp.

The Perspective

In weeks 11 through 16 Thomas went over 100 total yards 5 times scoring 9 times (6 rushing, 3 receiving). Bush is already injured and Thomas is the starter regardless. I draft 5 times last week and Thomas went pick number 30, 26, 37, 25, and 36, whick makes him a great value.

The News

ESPN blogger Bill Williamson expects Vincent Jackson to have a big year

The Perspective

For those of you who miss out on one of the big WRs, Jackson may be the kind of guy who gives you #1 WR numbers that you can get in the 5^th or 6^th round.

The News

According to CBS Sportsline Addai looks like he has his quickness back.

The Perspective

I’m not sold on Addai, however I did draft him at #50 as my #3 back in a draft last week. If you can get him at this type of value go for it, but don’t expect the Addai of 3 years ago.

The News

The 5^th Down reported that the Giants feel like Bradshaw is ready to take over the duties as Brandon Jacobs main back-up now that Derrick Ward is in Tampa.

The Perspective

Who ever wins this job has a lot of value. Last year Ward rushed for a 1000 yards in part time duty last year and Bradshaw appears ready to go. Jacobs will get banged up during the season and I like Bradshaw as his main handcuff.

Earl Bennett is someone who keeps coming up in various reports out of Bear’s camp. Who is Earl Bennett you may ask? Well I asked the same question and here is what I know.

• Bennett had zero as in none, zip, zilch catches in his ‘08 rookie campaign.
• He was drafted in the 3rd round-I linked a story from Football Outsiders last week where they discussed how the round a wide receivers was drafted in is an indicator to how early they start finding success in the pros. While the 3rd round isn’t a late pick if you take into account his lack of playing time it would be out of the norms for Bennett to have a break out season this year.
• His college QB for one year (2005) was …Jay Cutler. They have shown some chemistry already and Cutler has vouched for his abilities.

Bennett is worthy of nothing more than a very late flier at this time. However keep an eye on him during the remainder of camp and the up coming preseason games. If this practice chemistry begins to manifest itself during real game action he may be a great steal. It is obvious the Greg Olsen is going to be Cutlers favorite target, but who his favorite wide receiver target is going to be is still unclear. Somebody is going to make some catches out of the receiver position and I’m not sold on Hester.

Instead of making a top 20 or 30 list of running backs, which you can find 100s on the net, I made a list of the some of the best running back values in this years draft. How I determine the value of a running is by looking at their Average Draft Position (ADP) according to the guys at Fantasy Football Calculator and compare their ADP to what I think their fantasy value is going to be to their owners.

This is truly where leagues are won and lost. Drafting Purple Jesus 1^st does not take a whole lot of preparation or thought. But after the first couple of rounds it becomes apparent who has done their homework and who hasn’t. Those that have not prepped become uncomfortable when not picking a guy who doesn’t carry name recognition. Those that do prepare can look past the name and look more at the player’s value.

This year draft is shaping up to be one of the craziest in years. It is entirely conceivable that 4 wide receivers and 2 QBs could go in the first round. Also the list of great running backs is very short. In fact you can make a case against any of the top runners this year. However the list of mid-level backs is much bigger than years past. Conversely there are 9-10 stud wide receivers, but after that the talent and value drops sharply. If you wait until round 6 to get a #2 wr you may find yourself at a disadvantage to your opponents. To put it simply there are more running back values in the mid rounds than there are wide receivers.

The players I will be single out today fall mainly into one of three categories. First they are an under appreciated starter. This is the guy that will receive the bulk of the carries but because of past failures, the type offense they are in, or the futility of their team the get under valued. Choosing this back has a lot less risk involved because they are going to get carries. The second type of back is a player who is in a time split with another back. He may or not be the starter but he is on a team that not only runs the ball a lot, but also does it effectively. This is somewhat of a risky pick but can be at the very least be a bye-week fill in. Finally is the player who is the main back up for an injury prone veteran. There is a little more risk involved with this pick. You are either handcuffing one of your studs or hoping that injury befalls one of your opponent’s horses.

I will be looking at the ADPs for a ten-team draft. I will go round by round and pick out the best values. I went ahead and skipped round one for what I think are obvious reasons.

Round 2

Brandon Jacobs (17.3 ADP 12 RB, 18 ovr)

2008-1089 RuYds 15 TDs

While always an injury risk you can’t deny that when he plays he’s one of the best backs out there. The fact you can draft him and his 15 tds at the end of the 2^nd round makes him a great value.

Round 3

Clinton Portis (22.9 ADP, 13 RB, 22 ovr)

2008-1487 RuYds 9 TDs

Having Ladell Betts around should not be a cause of concern but rather a reason for optimism. The ‘Skins have stated that Betts will have a bigger role in the offense which should help Portis to stay healthy. He can still produce and will be the go to guy near the goal line.

Pierre Thomas (30 ADP, 16 RB 30 ovr)

625 RuYds 12Td

Quiet possibly the best deal in the 2009 draft. He is better runner than Bush, will be the short yardage back and not a bad receiver out of the backfield. If you don’t draft a running back in the first 2 rounds this year this guy maybe your saving grace. I have a feeling that by the end of preseason he will be going closer to the 2^nd round.

Round 4

Ryan Grant (32.6 ADP 17 RB 33 ovr)

1203 RuYds 5 TDs

While the TD numbers are underwhelming he is still the only back in Green Bay. That alone makes him valuable. By round four he is at best your #2 running back or a flex option. Another thing to keep in mind is his early schedule. He sees the Bengals, Rams, Lions and Browns in the first 6 weeks. Let him pad his stats then look to trade him if you think you have better options.

Kevin Smith (35.3 ADP, 18 RB 35 ovr)

976 RuYds 8 TDs

Quietly had a nice season for the hapless Lions. Good yards per carry (4.1) for running behind an awful o-line. Once again best suited for a flex spot on your team but he is the only game in town for the Lion at this point. Has a horrible schedule early so if you do draft him be patient and have other options available.

Round 5

Darren McFadden (46.3 ADP, 21 RB, 47 ovr)

499 RuYds 4 TD

He is slated to be the starter ahead of Justin Fargas and is looking to rebound from an injury-plagued season. I think McFadden is always going to be an injury concern but drafting him late in the 5th round as a 2^nd/3^rd running back is not bad at all.

Derrick Ward (49.7 ADP, 22 RB, 50 ovr)

1025 RuYds 2 TD.

Not a lot of TDs in 2008, but then again Ward had Brandon Jacobs in front of him in New York. He has the potential to be a very good #2 back. As far as the Earnest Graham factor I think Ward is the more talented player and will have the first shot to start.

Later on this week I will hit the next couple of rounds where there are an astounshing number of decent backs still sitting there.

The News

To go along with Football Outsiders analysis the MiamiDolphins.com reports that Dolphins wr have been impressive thus far in camp and in particular Ted Ginn, Jr. In a related note Chad Pennington was praised for his arm strength in a report from The Fifth Down.

The Perspective

Call me a believer but I like Ted Ginn, Jr this year. While Pennington isn’t going to break any records he is a competent QB and if he really does have increased arm strength that can only mean more down field chance s for Ginn. His current ADP according to FantasyFootballCalculator.com is 102.9 and the 41^st wr being drafted.

The News

The Dallas morning news reported that Patrick Crayton hold on the #2 wr job is his to lose.

The Perspective

If you are a believer in the Cowboy’s passing game then Crayton should be worth a late round flier with some upside. He is obviously the 3^rd fiddle behind Roy Wiliams and Jason Witten, but some one has to make up for the 69 receptions that TO grabbed last year and it won’t all be Williams.

The News

In a recent ESPNBlog Kevin Seifert talks about the improvements made by 2^nd year wide out Earl Bennett.

The Perspective

I’m not suggesting you draft him, but at least keep him on your radar. While I’ve heard that Devin Hester has made some improvements to his route running I still believe someone else is going to emerge as a fantasy worthy player for the new Cutler-led passing attack in the Windy City.

The News

ESPN Blogger  Mike Sando  reported that Vernon Davis has been “catch(ing) everything thrown to him”.

The Perspective

Davis has been teasing his owners for a couple of seasons with immense talent but not much to show for it. If you like drafting 2 TEs (I don’t) then he has some upside as your #2.

The News

According to Pro Football Talk there are those around the NFL that believe Braylon Edwards is faking his injuries.

The Perspective

Faking or not, I want nothing to do with the Brown’s passing game and Edwards is the #1 reason why. Who wants a guy who drops a ton of passes, is injured a lot and is thought of so poorly that people believe he is faking an injury when he is supposed to be the teams best offensive weapon. No Thanks.

The News

Mlive.com reported that Calvin Johnson has looked great so far in camp and that the Scott Linehan has been very impressed with Matthew Stafford so far in camp.

The Perspective

Anyone that was worried Calvin Johnson would have a drop in his stats with a rookie QB throwing to him can draft with confidence. Johnson is one of those guys who’s going to perform no matter who is throwing him the ball and if Stafford is as impressive as we are being led to believe this only further solidifies him as a #1 wr.

The News

According to CBS Sports Dwayne Bowe has lost 12-15 lbs since OTAs earlier in the summer.

The Perspective

After OTAs, where Bowe was not only overweight but was also dropping passes right and left, I was ready to write Bowe off for the year. Losing the weight is a great 1^st step but he is being draft as a borderline #1 (11^th wr over and 29.6 ADP) he has to become more reliable catching the ball.

I’m going to put out a breakdown of the running back position this weekend. It will have a top 20 list, best values, sleepers and bust. If you have any questions or thoughts for me please leave a comment after the article. It is one of my favorite things about sports: debating.

The News

Lendale White has stayed trim and looks to be in great shape.

The Perspective

Even back in OTAs White has been very positive and seems to have turned over a new leaf. Going into a Contract year as the backup to one of the best young RBs will do that to a man. The Titians have a great line and there are plenty of runs available for White to be valuable in all formats.  According to FantasyFootballCalculator.com his current ADP is 74 over and 32nd running back being drafted.

The News

Tashard Choice and Roy Williams stood out at Cowboys Practice according to ESPN blogger Matt Mosely.

The Perspective

Choice will be the primary backup to Marion Barber this year but with Felix Jones also looking very good so far in camp he would not get enough touches to be usable unless Barber would get injures. Williams has worked hard this summer to become a suitable replacement for TO in the Cowboy passing game. He has some talent and I would feel a lot better about Tony Romo this year if Williams can get on the same page with Romo. Williams, Austin Mile, Patrick Crayton and all-world TE Jason Witten makes for a pretty dynamic aerial attack.

The News

Steven Jackson looks to be in great shape thus far in camp.

The Perspective

Couple this news with the fact that the Rams added a tackle, center, a blocking TE and blocking FB it all points to a renew focus on the running game in the dome and a return to fantasy greatness for S-Jax. As always staying free from injuries will be the key for Jackson.

The News

Ravens OC Cam Cameron stated on BaltimoreRavens.com that the Ravens will use a RBBC this year. In related news the Carroll County Times reported that McClain reported to camp at 270 and plans shed 10-15 pounds.

The Perspective

During OTAs McClain discussed the fact that he would be gaining weight in preparation for his expected switch back to FB. Apparently he may have gone a little too far with his preparation. Both Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have looked very good in camp. While McClain may vulture some TDs he won’t get enough touches to be a viable option unless one of the other two RBs get injured (aka McGahee). Right now Rice is down as the starter but this will be a battle through out camp.

The News

Carson Palmer is looking good so far in the early stages in camp. The AP reported that the Bengals are going to get Chris Henry more involved this year.

The Perspective

That sounds all well and good but Palmer hasn’t been the same since his injury and I want to see how the offense looks before I could recommend Palmer. Apparently many of you agree, as Palmer is currently the 12^th QB going off the boards in FantasyFootballCalculator.com’s mock drafts. Having a focused Chris Henry will go a long ways to making up for the loss of TJ “Whose your Mama”.

The News

Roddy White holdout has carried over to the first full week of training camp.

The Perspective

White is now consider one of the elite WR in the league and with the maturation of Matt Ryan and the addition of Tony Gonzalez is only going to bolster his place as a true #1 WR. One would think this would get resolved sooner rather than later, however according to Fanball.com NFL insider Adam Schefter feels this could be a lengthy holdout.

The News

A report from the Washington Times states that Ladell Betts will garner more carries this year in an effort to keep starter Clinton Portis fresh.

The Perspective

Portis really faded the 2^nd half of the year so it comes as no surprise that the team would look for ways to keep him ready for the long haul. Portis owners need to make sure to hand cuff him with Betts.

The News

Foxsports is reporting that Brian Westbrook will see less goal line action this year. The Philadelphia Inquirer also reported that Westbrook is feeling much better coming off off-season surgery.

The Perspective

Right now Westbrook’s ADP is 17.4 and has been falling over the past couple of weeks. He is currently the 12 RB being draft and as LeSean McCoy continues to impress he may slip further. Everything about Westbrook smells of a big fall this year. McCoy is not only the future but also the present. With or without Westbrook he will get enough carries to affect Westbrook’s value. With all that said if Westbrook gets healthy he could be a great 2^nd-3^rd round value.

The News

A report from the San Diego Union-Tribune states that Sproles will not be taking carries away from LT.

The Perspective

Um…OK if you say so. I don’t buy it. Why would the Chargers pay Sproles a ton of money? To only be a kick returner? I do think that demise of LT has been grossly exaggerated, but if nothing else Sproles will get a few more caries to help keep LT healthy.

The News

Chris “Beanie” Wells looks big, but slim at his first practice according to ESPN Blagger Mike Sando. Sando was also present when Wells rolled his ankle and was carted of the field.

The Perspective

The Arizona Republic is reporting that Wells may miss this week and may not play in the 1^st preseason game. Wells was injury prone in college and this isn’t a good start to his professional career. Draft with caution.

The News

In a report from insidebayarea.com Darren Mcfadden is slated to replace Justin Fargas as the starter this year. In fact an earlier report sated that Michael Bush will see increase action taking carries away from Fargas, not Mcfadden.

The Perspective

Currently Mcfadden is being draft as the 21^st rb off the boards and represents a great bargain for a starter. Mcfadden is always going to be an injury risk but with an ADP of 46.9 he is wroth the risk. Bush is worth a late round flier.

More than a year ago I decided I wanted to climb one of Colorado’s fifty-three 14ers. At the time it just sounded fun and hiking to a peak of a tall mountain was one of those bucket list things. A little morbid for a man my age but having that mental checklist is something that most people have and climbing a mountain was on my list. As I rolled into my 10th year teaching in the fall of 2008 my co-worker, friend, and experienced conqueror of several the 14ers, Matt, began to finalize some plans for the summer of 2010. His good friend and fellow hiker Brett was getting married in August of ‘09 and Matt was trying to get me to narrow down a time that I would be able to go. As the school year continued I began to realize that both Matt and Brett were planning their trip loosely around me. They had chosen a time that fit my schedule and a peak that best suited my fitness level which sadly was not very good. Just saying I was going to make the trip wasn’t good enough any more, I actually had to make a decision on the trip.

Something else was going on in my life at this time.  My 10th year of teaching was going very poorly I was becoming one of those grumpy, caustic teachers that I used look at with both pity and scorn. I would swear that if I ever started to act like that I would get out of teaching and here I was. It carried into my home life. My wife and I had just added are third child in October which provides its own set of stresses in the home and now I was bring work baggage into the home. As the year went on the baggage got heavier and heavier and my (and my loved ones) happiness suffered for it. By Mid-June I had come very close to quitting my job and for the first time since in 10 years nearly brought to tears over my job. I was frustrated and I was pissed. A specific incident occurred which I will not go into but it was festering in me and try as I might I could not douse its fire.

Before I new it July rolled around it was time to go to Colorado. I had come to a quite resolve that I would continue teaching but would do as little as possible without losing my job. I had to become one of those teachers. Maybe my wife knew something I didn’t but she was oddly supportive of my going away for 5 days while leaving her with 3 children under the age of 7. Swim Team, Baseball practice, swim practice, and baby aquatics were all on the schedule not to mention the million of things that mothers do to maintain the home.

That brings me to the Final Push-what mountain hikers call the final ascent to the peak of the mountain.

 Part 2 will be posted soon.

Perpare to light it up soon Ricky.

Now that the OTAs are beginning to wrap up I decided to check the temperature of the fantasy world and see where we are at. Before I start I want to say that I don’t take a lot of stock in what GMs and head coaches have to say during the OTAs but rather what is actually seen on the practice field by on the field reporters. For instance talk early was that the Miami backfield was going to be a split between Brown and Williams. However everything I have read in recent weeks is that Ronnie Brown looks great and Ricky’s dream of retiring on a tropical beach with his favorite flavor of herb is going to happen sooner rather than latter.

What I like to do is look at whose values have taken a hit over the past month and whose value is on the rise. This is much too early for me to go real in depth about my drafting style but in short I like to break my positions into tiers and then relate that to each players Average Draft Position (ADP). When looking at ADP I use  a site by the name of  Fantasy Football Calculator.  Their ADPs are very current not an average of the past few months but rather the past week. So here are my thoughts.

#1  NoBrianers

There is no doubt that AP is the best RB in this years draft. Therefore should be the first guy to go. If I get stuck with the #1 pick this is the only guy I will consider. In years past there were at least 3 or 4 guys that you could make a case for, not so this year. What the running back position does have this year is depth. AP is the only top tier guy, but 10-14 guys that fall into the next tier. Which brings me to my next thought.

Winds of Change

 I have always been a  big proponent of taking running backs early and often in my drafts. However if I am sitting in a late 1st round position this may be the year to take at least 1 non running back in the first 2 rounds and possibly taking two non running backs. If I am sitting at number 10 and both Fitzgerald andMoss are sitting there I would very tempted to take both of those guys. Projecting to the third/fourth round I would have the following options out there at running back (ADP in a 10 team Draft):

Ronnie Brown (3.09)

Ryan Grant (4.03)

Kevin Smith (4.05)

Marshawn Lynch (5.01)

Knowshon Moreno (5.05)

Darren McFadden (6.02)

Not an overwhelming group but if you have two WR getting 20 points game they don’t have to be.

Best Values 

Just a quick list of the best values at each position according to their ADP.

Running Backs: Marion Barber (3.o4), Ronnie Brown (3.09), Knowshon Moreno (5.05), Lynch (5.01), McFadden (9.07)-no way he stays this low on draft day.

Wide Receivers: Owens (4.01), Houshmandzadeh (4.04), DeSean Jackson (6.06), and Torry Holt (9.01)

Quarterbacks: Tom Brady (2.10)-by the time most of us start drafting his ADP will move up to the 1st round, McNabb (6.10) and Hasselbeck (11.01).

Tight End: Kellen Winslow (7.10) The Bucs didn’t sign him to block, his numbers will be comparable to any of the top 3 TE.

A Final Word Thought

The Colts have had a lot of turnover on their coaching staff with a new head coach, offensive and defensive coordinators, and offensive line coach. There were already signs last year of a drop when the colts fell to 15th in the league in total offensive after being 5th in 2007. It is currently being reflected in mock drafts as Reggie Wayne is the only offensive starter really holding his value. Sports illustrated did hit on this recently and discussed that the Colts knew this day was coming and had planned for it. Once camp starts the three things I will be watching for in Indy will be…

The Colts need Saturday on Sunday.

1. Is the Offensive system being tweaked at all. According to SI, very little will change.

2. Does Joseph Addia regain form or does Donald Brown and Mike Hart start to steal touches. His current ADP is 5.10 and currently the 22nd rb taken off the boards. He is either a tremendous value or a suckers pick. #3 will go a long ways into answering this.

3. Is the O-line healthy and most importantly is Jeff Saturday healthy. Reports indicate that everyone is minded up and ready to go .

I will be back soon with more of my observations in the world of fantasy football.